Geneva Switzerland Clay Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Mariano Navone vs Jaume Munar: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Mariano Navone

Rank: #44
48%
VS

Jaume Munar

Rank: #38
52%
Expected Total Games: 25.8
Predicted Winner: Jaume Munar

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Player Metrics

Mariano Navone

Form Index: 55.4
ELO Rating: 1710.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1755.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 276.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.2
Clay: 28.8
Grass: 10.9
Serve Rating: 95.2
Return Rating: 95.3

Jaume Munar

Form Index: 44.0
ELO Rating: 1664.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1718.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 168.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 32.2
Clay: 19.2
Grass: 19.7
Serve Rating: 94.7
Return Rating: 86.0

Recent Matches

Mariano Navone

Jaume Munar

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Mariano Navone
vs
0
Jaume Munar
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Quarterfinals in Geneva, played on clay at an ATP 250 event in Switzerland, sets up a tight clash between Mariano Navone and Jaume Munar. The model gives Jaume Munar the narrow edge — 51.54% to Munar, 48.46% to Navone — with a predicted total of about 25.8 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Munar arrives with the higher ranking (38 vs Navone’s 44), but several indicators point to a very even contest. Navone carries the higher form index (55.38 to Munar’s 43.97) and the superior Elo (1710.6 vs 1664.0). Surface strength indices are modest for both — Navone 28.76, Munar 19.22 — suggesting neither player has a dominant clay specialist profile here. Fatigue is a clear differentiator: Navone has logged 276 minutes in this tournament compared with Munar’s 168, which could matter in extended rallies on slow courts. Serve metrics are close, so there is no clear serving advantage entering the match. However Navone’s mean return index (95.27) is markedly higher than Munar’s (86.02), a gap greater than five points that favors Navone when returning. Over their last three matches at clay events, both have momentum: Navone’s path includes wins over Marco Trungelliti and Cameron Norrie and a long, deep match in Rome that ended in defeat; Munar has two straight wins in Geneva after a loss in Rome. Navone’s recent wins have involved longer court time, while Munar’s victories here have been comparatively quicker — another sign of Navone’s heavier workload.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.8 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Mariano Navone versus Jaume Munar. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Mariano Navone versus Jaume Munar. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Mariano Navone - Jaume Munar) -0.9 Most likely spread: -1 (Jaume Munar wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Mariano Navone versus Jaume Munar. Positive values indicate Mariano Navone winning more games, negative values indicate Jaume Munar winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Mariano Navone versus Jaume Munar. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is low — predicted aces around 4.96 — and expected double faults are about 4.47. On clay, slower ball speed and higher bounce typically reduce ace totals and can increase pressure-related errors, which matches this aces prediction and double faults prediction. With serve ratings near parity, there isn’t a single player likely to inflate the predicted aces significantly.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 5.0 Most likely: 4 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Mariano Navone versus Jaume Munar. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Mariano Navone versus Jaume Munar. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Mariano Navone versus Jaume Munar. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Mariano Navone versus Jaume Munar. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

24.9% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Mariano Navone's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (31.1%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Mariano Navone's perspective. Format: BO3.

Final Prediction

Munar’s slight edge comes through ranking position and marginal tournament freshness, while Navone’s superior return game and recent form keep this very close. The key factor to watch: whether Navone’s return pressure and accumulated minutes force errors from Munar, or whether Munar’s fresher legs allow him to control baseline exchanges and clinch the tight points.

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