Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 64

Marin Cilic vs Martin Landaluce: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Marin Cilic

Rank: #47
44%
VS

Martin Landaluce

Rank: #94
56%
Expected Total Games: 27.3
Predicted Winner: Martin Landaluce

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Player Metrics

Marin Cilic

Form Index: 57.3
ELO Rating: 1709.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1750.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 106.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 28.4
Clay: 17.0
Grass: 20.1
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 90.0

Martin Landaluce

Form Index: 52.2
ELO Rating: 1665.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1712.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 224.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 29.8
Clay: 4.1
Grass: 10.6
Serve Rating: 93.6
Return Rating: 87.3

Recent Matches

Marin Cilic

Martin Landaluce

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Marin Cilic
vs
0
Martin Landaluce
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Rome, Italy — Round of 64 on clay at a Masters 1000 event sets up an intriguing clash between Marin Cilic and Martin Landaluce. The model gives Martin Landaluce the narrow edge: 55.57% to win versus 44.43% for Marin Cilic, with a predicted total of about 27.31 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Marin Cilic arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 47) with a stronger form index (57.28) and a higher Elo (1709.35) than Landaluce (rank 94, form 52.24, Elo 1665.95). Cilic’s surface strength index on clay (16.998) is substantially higher than Landaluce’s (4.058), and his cumulative minutes in the event (fatigue 106 minutes) are far lighter than Landaluce’s 224 minutes — a notable conditioning differential that could matter on slow, grinding clay. Both players show strong serve metrics by their mean serve index (Cilic 95.86, Landaluce 93.62) and comparable return profiles (Cilic 89.96, Landaluce 87.31); neither difference exceeds five points, so neither player holds a clear statistical edge strictly on serve or return indices. Looking at recent results, Cilic has two wins in his last three matches (Rome vs Giron, Madrid vs Bergs) and one loss in Munich to Altmaier, suggesting solid form through European clay events. Landaluce’s last three show more volatility: a win over Christopher O’Connell in Rome sandwiched between losses to Adam Walton (Madrid) and Andrea Pellegrino (Rome). Those results, combined with his heavier minutes in the tournament, paint a picture of a player capable of bursts of high-level play but carrying greater match fatigue into this contest.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 27.3 Most likely outcome: 27 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Marin Cilic versus Martin Landaluce. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Marin Cilic versus Martin Landaluce. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Marin Cilic - Martin Landaluce) +0.5 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Marin Cilic versus Martin Landaluce. Positive values indicate Marin Cilic winning more games, negative values indicate Martin Landaluce winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Marin Cilic versus Martin Landaluce. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match sits at about 10.6 total (predicted aces), while expected double faults are roughly 5.87. On clay, the slower surface and higher bounce tend to suppress ace counts and can increase unforced serve errors under fatigue; that context makes this aces prediction realistic. Neither player has a dramatically superior serve index, though Cilic’s marginally higher serve rating could nudge the ace count upward slightly in his service games. The double faults prediction reflects the likelihood of more mistakes as rallies and minutes accumulate.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 10 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Marin Cilic versus Martin Landaluce. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Marin Cilic versus Martin Landaluce. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Marin Cilic versus Martin Landaluce. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Marin Cilic versus Martin Landaluce. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

43.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Marin Cilic's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (31.7%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Marin Cilic's perspective. Format: BO3.

Final Prediction

The model’s slight lean to Landaluce stems from the overall probabilistic balance despite Cilic’s advantages in rank, clay strength and fresher legs. The key factor to watch will be fatigue: whoever sustains first-serve effectiveness late in rallies and limits double faults on clay should determine the outcome.

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