Almaty Kazakhstan Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Marin Cilic vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Prediction

Marin Cilic

Rank: #80
37%
VS

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Rank: #124
63%
Expected Total Games: 23.1
Predicted Winner: Nikoloz Basilashvili

Why the Model Favors Nikoloz Basilashvili

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +3.9 Nikoloz Basilashvili
Serve & return game +3.5 Nikoloz Basilashvili
Overall record & opposition quality +3.3 Nikoloz Basilashvili
Age +2.4 Nikoloz Basilashvili
Recent form +1.9 Nikoloz Basilashvili

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 63% for Nikoloz Basilashvili. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Marin Cilic

  • Current #80 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #86 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #51 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #70 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #89 2025-10-20

Nikoloz Basilashvili

  • Current #124 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #130 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #120 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #105 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #96 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Marin Cilic

Form Index: 21.8
ELO Rating: 1587.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1687.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 23.4
Clay: 11.4
Grass: 16.0
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 86.9

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Form Index: 55.9
ELO Rating: 1640.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1676.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 171.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.8
Clay: 23.3
Grass: 11.5
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 87.0

Recent Matches

Marin Cilic
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Nikoloz Basilashvili
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Adam Walton (2-0) hard Almaty 93 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Taro Daniel (2-0) hard Almaty 78 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Adrian Mannarino (0-1) hard Shanghai 47 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Liam Draxl (2-1) hard Shanghai 163 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Andre Ilagan (2-1) hard Shanghai 141 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Marin Cilic
vs
0
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Basilashvili is favoured to win this Round of 32 match, with the forecast at 63% for him and 37% for Cilic. The expected total is 23.1 games, pointing to a potentially competitive match.

Match Analysis

Basilashvili has the stronger recent hard-court results: after losing to Adrian Mannarino in Shanghai, he has won two straight-set matches in Almaty, against Taro Daniel and Adam Walton. Cilic, by contrast, has lost his last three hard-court matches, to Arthur Fery, Daniel Merida and Frances Tiafoe. Cilic has the higher ranking, at 80th compared with Basilashvili’s 124th, but the forecast favours Basilashvili on overall record and opposition quality. Their serve and return profiles are close, with Basilashvili holding a slight return advantage. He has also spent 171 minutes on court in Almaty, while Cilic has no tournament time logged, a possible counterweight to his recent run.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.1 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Marin Cilic - Nikoloz Basilashvili) -1.1 Most likely spread: -2 (Nikoloz Basilashvili wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Cilic is projected for 8.4 aces and 3.0 double faults, while Basilashvili is projected for 8.9 aces and 3.6 double faults. Their serve profiles are similar, so the forecast expects both to produce a comparable number of aces on the hard court.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.4 Most likely: 15 aces Per player: Marin Cilic 8.4 + Nikoloz Basilashvili 8.9
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.5 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Marin Cilic 3.0 + Nikoloz Basilashvili 3.6

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Marin Cilic

Expected 8.4 aces

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Expected 8.9 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Marin Cilic

Expected 3.0 double faults

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Expected 3.6 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

47.0% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Marin Cilic's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (31.4%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Cilic’s serving could make the difference if he uses it to keep Basilashvili from applying pressure on return. The Georgian’s recent wins give him the edge, but Cilic could upset the forecast by protecting his service games.

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