Madrid Spain Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Alexei Popyrin vs Martin Damm: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Alexei Popyrin

Rank: #56
44%
VS

Martin Damm

Rank: #126
56%
Expected Total Games: 24.3
Predicted Winner: Martin Damm

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Ranking Trends

Alexei Popyrin

  • Current #56 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #50 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #48 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #24 2025-07-21
  • 12 mo ago #26 2025-04-21

Martin Damm

  • Current #126 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #177 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #208 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #440 2025-07-21
  • 12 mo ago #1000 None

Player Metrics

Alexei Popyrin

Form Index: 37.9
ELO Rating: 1535.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1549.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 50.2
Clay: 43.2
Grass: 40.1
Serve Rating: 80.1
Return Rating: 58.2

Martin Damm

Form Index: 70.1
ELO Rating: 1645.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1700.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 210.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 55.4
Clay: 39.7
Grass: 39.7
Serve Rating: 98.3
Return Rating: 87.8

Recent Matches

Alexei Popyrin
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Martin Damm
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alexei Popyrin
vs
0
Martin Damm
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Madrid, clay — opening round at the Masters 1000 level sees Alexei Popyrin (No. 56) face Martin Damm (No. 126). The model leans to Damm, projecting him to win with a 55.83% chance versus Popyrin’s 44.17%, and forecasts a relatively short match of about 24.26 total games.

Match Analysis

On paper the matchup is a study in contrasts. Popyrin carries the higher ranking (56) but posts a modest form index (37.94) and an Elo of 1535.61; his surface strength sits at 43.15. Damm, despite a lower ranking, arrives with stronger form (70.05) and a higher Elo (1645.13), though his clay surface index (39.71) is slightly below Popyrin’s. Fatigue is a real factor: Popyrin shows zero cumulative minutes in this event while Damm has logged 210 minutes in Madrid already, which could influence tight late-game moments. Serve and return numbers tilt markedly toward Damm. His mean serve index (98.31) is well above Popyrin’s (80.12), a gap north of 18 points, and his mean return index (87.75) outclasses Popyrin’s 58.22 by nearly 30 points — both differences are material and likely decisive on serve-plus-return exchanges. Recent form backs that up: Popyrin has one win and two defeats on clay in his last three (a win over Alex Michelsen, losses to Frances Tiafoe and Casper Ruud), while Damm has won two consecutive Madrid matches (Cristian Garin and Andrea Pellegrino) after a loss in Houston.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.3 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alexei Popyrin - Martin Damm) +1.1 Most likely spread: +1 (Alexei Popyrin wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 18.34 total, and the predicted aces might be tempered by clay’s slower bounce, which typically reduces outright service winners. The double faults prediction sits at 4.9 expected double faults; longer rallies and accumulated minutes on clay can push that number up, especially for a player like Damm who has already played 210 minutes. Given Damm’s significantly higher serve rating, expect him to account for a larger share of the predicted aces despite the surface.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 18.3 Most likely: 18 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.9 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Damm’s superior serve and return indices, plus stronger immediate form and higher Elo, give him the edge in Madrid despite the extra minutes on court. The key factor to watch will be whether Damm’s workload blunts his serving potency late in sets — if it does, Popyrin’s chance of turning the match into a longer, return-driven contest rises.

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