Tokio Japan Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Marton Fucsovics vs Frances Tiafoe Prediction

Marton Fucsovics

Rank: #58
46%
VS

Frances Tiafoe

Rank: #29
54%
Predicted Games Played: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Frances Tiafoe

Ranking Trends

Marton Fucsovics

  • Current Rank: #58 (2025-09-15)
  • 3 Months Ago: #103 (2025-06-23)
  • 6 Months Ago: #90 (2025-03-17)
  • 9 Months Ago: #104 (2024-12-23)
  • 12 Months Ago: #86 (2024-09-23)

Frances Tiafoe

  • Current Rank: #29 (2025-09-15)
  • 3 Months Ago: #12 (2025-06-23)
  • 6 Months Ago: #17 (2025-03-17)
  • 9 Months Ago: #18 (2024-12-23)
  • 12 Months Ago: #15 (2024-09-23)

Player Metrics

Marton Fucsovics

Form Index: 65.6
ELO Rating: 945.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1640.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 155.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.8
Clay: 7.2
Grass: 6.4
Serve Rating: 96.4
Return Rating: 87.3

Frances Tiafoe

Form Index: 66.7
ELO Rating: 1512.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1711.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.0
Clay: 14.4
Grass: 19.9
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 86.9

Recent Matches

Marton Fucsovics
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Matteo Arnaldi (2-0) hard Tokio 99 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Filip Misolic (2-0) hard Tokio 56 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Botic Van De Zandschulp (2-0) hard Winston Salem 111 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jaume Munar (2-0) hard Winston Salem 100 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Roberto Bautista Agut (2-0) hard Winston Salem 93 min

Frances Tiafoe
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jan-Lennard Struff (0-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Martin Damm (3-1) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Yoshihito Nishioka (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Holger Rune (0-2) hard Cincinnati 72 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Ugo Humbert (2-0) hard Cincinnati 83 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Marton Fucsovics
vs
0
Frances Tiafoe
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the Tokyo tournament, Marton Fucsovics is set to face Frances Tiafoe on hard courts. The matchup is expected to be competitive, with Tiafoe slightly favored to win, holding a probability of 53.90% compared to Fucsovics' 46.10%. The predicted total number of games played in this encounter is estimated at 24.0.

Match Analysis

Frances Tiafoe, currently ranked 29, has a higher Elo rating of 1512.56 compared to Marton Fucsovics' 945.20, indicating a significant experience gap in competitive match situations. Tiafoe also boasts a form index of 66.67, slightly outperforming Fucsovics, who has a form index of 65.63. A notable point is Tiafoe's surface strength index of 12.97, which is considerably higher than Fucsovics' 7.83, suggesting better adaptation to hard surfaces. Fatigue is also a factor; Tiafoe has zero cumulative fatigue from this tournament, while Fucsovics has accumulated 155 minutes on court, potentially influencing his stamina in the match. In their recent performances, Fucsovics has shown solid form, winning all of his last three matches, including a convincing straight-sets victory against Matteo Arnaldi in the last round. Conversely, Tiafoe's latest outing resulted in a loss to Jan-Lennard Struff, but he did secure a win against Martin Damm and a dominant performance against Yoshihito Nishioka prior to that. This mixed form may play a role, but Tiafoe’s recent competitive experience at the US Open could give him an advantage moving forward.

Final Prediction

Frances Tiafoe's edge lies in his higher ranking, better Elo rating, and advantageous surface strength index, alongside his fresher state with no accumulated fatigue. A key factor to watch will be Tiafoe's ability to capitalize on his serve and return capabilities, particularly if he can differentiate himself in those areas against Fucsovics.