Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Matteo Arnaldi vs Jaume Munar: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Matteo Arnaldi

Rank: #106
36%
VS

Jaume Munar

Rank: #38
64%
Expected Total Games: 26.5
Predicted Winner: Jaume Munar

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Ranking Trends

Matteo Arnaldi

  • Current #106 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #65 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #64 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #37 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #37 2025-05-05

Jaume Munar

  • Current #38 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #37 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #36 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #48 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #66 2025-05-05

Player Metrics

Matteo Arnaldi

Form Index: 21.5
ELO Rating: 1462.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1433.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.2
Clay: 13.5
Grass: 6.8
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 92.4

Jaume Munar

Form Index: 41.2
ELO Rating: 1679.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1723.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 32.2
Clay: 19.6
Grass: 19.7
Serve Rating: 94.8
Return Rating: 86.5

Recent Matches

Matteo Arnaldi
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

Jaume Munar
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Matteo Arnaldi
vs
1
Jaume Munar
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Rome, clay, first round of a Masters 1000: Matteo Arnaldi (ITA) faces Jaume Munar (ESP) in a match that pits two clay-courters at different career rungs. The model favors Munar: Jaume Munar 63.90% vs Matteo Arnaldi 36.10%, with an expected total of about 26.5 games — pointing to a relatively compact contest rather than a marathon.

Match Analysis

Munar arrives as the higher-ranked and higher-rated player (rank 38, Elo 1,679) compared with Arnaldi (rank 106, Elo 1,462). Munar’s form index (41.19) is also markedly higher than Arnaldi’s (21.53), and his surface strength index on clay (19.58) edges Arnaldi’s (13.48). Both players report zero tournament fatigue coming into this match. The two have similar serving profiles by the provided mean serve index (Arnaldi 96.02, Munar 94.75) — the difference is small and not expected to be decisive. By contrast, Arnaldi holds a clear advantage in return ability (mean return 92.36 vs Munar 86.54), a gap greater than five points that could translate into more break opportunities against Munar’s service games. Looking at recent form, both come in with one win and two defeats across their last three clay matches. Arnaldi beat Dusan Lajovic in Madrid but lost to Quentin Halys (Barcelona) and Cristian Garin (Monte Carlo). Munar’s recent sequence includes a win over Aleksandr Shevchenko in Madrid, and losses to Casper Ruud (Madrid) and Rafael Jodar (Barcelona). Neither has accumulated court time in this event, so freshness should not be a differentiator.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.5 Most likely outcome: 26 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Matteo Arnaldi - Jaume Munar) +1.3 Most likely spread: +1 (Matteo Arnaldi wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Aces prediction for this match is modest: the predicted aces total is about 15.8. Given the clay surface’s slower speed and higher bounce, predicted aces are suppressed compared with faster surfaces. Predicted double faults sit at roughly 4.24; clay’s longer rallies and physical demands can raise the expected double faults late in matches. Neither player posts a dramatically higher serve rating, so the ace count is likely driven more by return positioning and match circumstances than by a single powerhouse server.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.8 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.2 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

32.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Matteo Arnaldi's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (37.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Munar’s higher rank, superior Elo and better recent form give him the edge in this Rome opener, despite Arnaldi’s stronger return profile. The key factor to watch is return pressure: if Arnaldi converts early break chances, the match tightens; if Munar holds comfortably, he should justify the projected favorite status.

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