Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Marton Fucsovics vs Matteo Berrettini: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Marton Fucsovics

Rank: #59
38%
VS

Matteo Berrettini

Rank: #107
62%
Expected Total Games: 42.4
Predicted Winner: Matteo Berrettini

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Player Metrics

Marton Fucsovics

Form Index: 28.6
ELO Rating: 1575.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1584.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 26.9
Clay: 10.9
Grass: 18.9
Serve Rating: 95.4
Return Rating: 93.4

Matteo Berrettini

Form Index: 31.8
ELO Rating: 1607.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1646.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 30.6
Clay: 17.3
Grass: 8.8
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 83.5

Recent Matches

Marton Fucsovics

Matteo Berrettini

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Marton Fucsovics
vs
0
Matteo Berrettini
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Roland Garros in Paris sets the stage for a Round of 128 showdown on clay between Marton Fucsovics and Matteo Berrettini. The model backs Matteo Berrettini to progress (62.48% win probability) over Marton Fucsovics (37.52%), with an expected total of about 42.44 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Fucsovics enters ranked 59 with an Elo of 1575.48, a form index of 28.58 and a surface strength index of 10.90. He shows a very strong mean return index (93.35) and a high mean serve index (95.38); his cumulative tournament fatigue is zero. Berrettini is ranked 107 but carries a slightly higher Elo (1607.44), a modestly better form index (31.81) and a surface strength index of 17.31. His mean serve index (96.30) is nearly identical to Fucsovics’s, so there’s no clear serve-index advantage between them, while his mean return index (83.52) sits notably lower than Fucsovics’s by roughly 9.8 points. Both players arrive with recent clay-court losses. Fucsovics has dropped his last three recorded clay matches (Monte Carlo, Madrid, Rome), with match durations ranging from 82 to 147 minutes and no wins in that sample. Berrettini’s recent form on clay mirrors that pattern: three consecutive recorded losses in Monte Carlo, Madrid and Rome, with slightly shorter match times (73–99 minutes). Neither player has accumulated fatigue in this tournament, so physical freshness should not be a deciding pre-match factor.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 42.4 Most likely outcome: 42 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Marton Fucsovics versus Matteo Berrettini. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Marton Fucsovics versus Matteo Berrettini. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Marton Fucsovics - Matteo Berrettini) -1.3 Most likely spread: -2 (Matteo Berrettini wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Marton Fucsovics versus Matteo Berrettini. Positive values indicate Marton Fucsovics winning more games, negative values indicate Matteo Berrettini winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Marton Fucsovics versus Matteo Berrettini. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the contest sits at about 15.72 total aces, while the predicted double faults come to roughly 7.28. On clay, expected aces are generally suppressed due to the slower surface and higher bounce, which the numbers reflect; expected double faults can climb as rallies and pressure lengthen. Both players feature very high mean serve indices but no substantial serve-index gap, so neither should dominate the predicted aces tally solely on serve rating.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.7 Most likely: 15 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 7.3 Most likely: 7 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Marton Fucsovics versus Matteo Berrettini. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Marton Fucsovics versus Matteo Berrettini. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Marton Fucsovics versus Matteo Berrettini. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Marton Fucsovics versus Matteo Berrettini. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

43.8% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Marton Fucsovics's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (28.8%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Marton Fucsovics's perspective. Format: BO5.

Final Prediction

Berrettini’s higher Elo and slightly better recent form tilt the model in his favor, despite Fucsovics’s superior return index and higher ranking. The key factor to watch will be how effectively Fucsovics can convert that return advantage into breaks against Berrettini’s powerful, consistent serve.

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