Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Mattia Bellucci vs Jack Draper Prediction

Mattia Bellucci

Rank: #68
23%
VS

Jack Draper

Rank: #5
77%
Expected Total Games: 35.0
Predicted Winner: Jack Draper

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Ranking Trends

Mattia Bellucci

  • Current #68 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #70 2025-02-24
  • 6 mo ago #102 2024-11-25
  • 9 mo ago #101 2024-08-26
  • 12 mo ago #173 2024-05-27

Jack Draper

  • Current #5 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #12 2025-02-24
  • 6 mo ago #15 2024-11-25
  • 9 mo ago #25 2024-08-26
  • 12 mo ago #39 2024-05-27

Player Metrics

Mattia Bellucci

Form Index: 18.0
ELO Rating: 708.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1536.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.3
Clay: 5.7
Grass: 5.9
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 86.1

Jack Draper

Form Index: 57.1
ELO Rating: 2752.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1687.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 23.3
Clay: 20.9
Grass: 23.1
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 87.6

Recent Matches

Mattia Bellucci
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

Jack Draper
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Mattia Bellucci
vs
1
Jack Draper
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 128 at the 2025 Roland Garros, Mattia Bellucci will face off against Jack Draper on the clay courts of Paris. The match is expected to be competitive, but Draper is favored to win with a probability of 76.67%, while Bellucci's chances stand at 23.33%. The predicted total number of games played in this encounter is estimated to be 35.

Match Analysis

Currently ranked 68, Mattia Bellucci has a form index of 18.02, indicating a challenging period for him. His Elo rating of 708.45 reflects his standing on the tour, while a cumulative fatigue of 0 minutes suggests he is fresh for this match. Bellucci's surface strength index is 5.71, which is rather low, suggesting he may struggle on clay. His mean serve index of 97.72 is impressive, but he falls short in return performance with a mean return index of 86.09. In contrast, Jack Draper boasts a much higher rank of 5 and a favorable form index of 57.07. His Elo rating of 2752.66 highlights his prowess on the tour, and like Bellucci, he has no cumulative fatigue, putting him in an optimal position. Draper's surface strength index stands at 20.94, indicating a solid capability on clay. His mean serve index of 95.93 is slightly lower than Bellucci’s, but his mean return index of 87.61 gives him a competitive edge in returning serves. Notably, Bellucci's superior serve index may play a crucial role, but Draper's overall game is more balanced.

Final Prediction

Jack Draper holds a clear advantage due to his higher rank, stronger recent performances, and better overall statistics on clay. A key factor to watch will be Draper's return game, as his ability to counter Bellucci's strong serves could significantly influence the match's outcome.

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