Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Mattia Bellucci vs Juncheng Shang Prediction

Mattia Bellucci

Rank: #74
49%
VS

Juncheng Shang

Rank: #110
51%
Expected Total Games: 36.0
Predicted Winner: Juncheng Shang

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Ranking Trends

Mattia Bellucci

  • Current #74 2025-08-04
  • 3 mo ago #68 2025-05-26
  • 6 mo ago #70 2025-02-24
  • 9 mo ago #102 2024-11-25
  • 12 mo ago #101 2024-08-26

Juncheng Shang

  • Current #110 2025-08-04
  • 3 mo ago #71 2025-05-26
  • 6 mo ago #58 2025-02-24
  • 9 mo ago #50 2024-11-25
  • 12 mo ago #72 2024-08-26

Player Metrics

Mattia Bellucci

Form Index: 38.2
ELO Rating: 799.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1536.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.0
Clay: 5.7
Grass: 6.8
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 86.6

Juncheng Shang

Form Index: 22.4
ELO Rating: 1003.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1528.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.0
Clay: 7.7
Grass: 9.9
Serve Rating: 95.8
Return Rating: 86.4

Recent Matches

Mattia Bellucci
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jaume Munar (0-2) hard Winston Salem 88 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Francisco Comesana (2-0) hard Winston Salem 80 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Damir Dzumhur (0-2) hard Cincinnati 143 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Hugo Gaston (1-2) hard Toronto 115 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Cameron Norrie (0-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Juncheng Shang
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Mattia Bellucci
vs
0
Juncheng Shang
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 128 at the 2025 US Open in New York, Mattia Bellucci will face Juncheng Shang on hard courts. The match is expected to be closely contested, with Shang slightly favored to win, holding a probability of 51.44% compared to Bellucci's 48.56%. The predicted total number of games played is 36.0.

Match Analysis

Mattia Bellucci, currently ranked 74, has a form index of 38.19 and an Elo rating of 799.07, indicating a moderate level of performance. He has a surface strength index of 6.97, which suggests some proficiency on hard courts. Notably, his mean serve index of 97.39 showcases a solid serving ability, but his mean return index of 86.58 indicates he may struggle against strong opposition. Conversely, Juncheng Shang, ranked 110, has a lower form index of 22.35 and a higher Elo rating of 1003.87. His surface strength index of 9.96 is significantly stronger than Bellucci's, and his mean serve index of 95.77 and return index of 86.36 show that he can effectively compete on this surface. In their recent performances, Bellucci has had mixed results, winning against Francisco Comesana but losing his last match to Jaume Munar. Shang, on the other hand, has faced a series of defeats, including losses to Tomas Martin Etcheverry, James Duckworth, and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, all in hard court competitions. While both players have faced challenges, Bellucci's more recent win may provide him with a slight psychological edge.

Final Prediction

Juncheng Shang's stronger surface strength index and higher Elo rating give him an edge heading into this matchup, despite both players exhibiting inconsistent recent performances. A key factor to watch will be the effectiveness of their serves, particularly how Bellucci's superior mean serve index holds up against Shang's overall game.

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