Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 32

Mattia Bellucci vs Martin Landaluce: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Mattia Bellucci

Rank: #80
44%
VS

Martin Landaluce

Rank: #94
56%
Expected Total Games: 24.1
Predicted Winner: Martin Landaluce

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Player Metrics

Mattia Bellucci

Form Index: 55.8
ELO Rating: 1612.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1595.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 268.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.6
Clay: 14.2
Grass: 15.6
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 91.4

Martin Landaluce

Form Index: 59.4
ELO Rating: 1698.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1741.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 351.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 29.7
Clay: 7.3
Grass: 10.6
Serve Rating: 93.7
Return Rating: 87.0

Recent Matches

Mattia Bellucci

Martin Landaluce

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Mattia Bellucci
vs
0
Martin Landaluce
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Rome Masters 1000 on clay, the round of 32 pits Italy’s Mattia Bellucci against Spain’s Martin Landaluce. The model favors Landaluce to advance (56.14% vs 43.86%) and projects a relatively short match on clay with an expected total of about 24.1 games.

Match Analysis

Bellucci arrives with the higher tour ranking (80 vs 94) but a lower Elo (1612.6 vs 1698.3). His form index sits at 55.8 and he shows stronger surface capability on clay (surface strength index 14.16) compared with Landaluce’s 7.25. Bellucci also posts a marginally better mean serve (96.26) and mean return (91.42) indices. Landaluce, however, has the edge in Elo and a slightly higher form index (59.37), suggesting recent match play has been sharper overall. Fatigue is notable: Bellucci has accumulated 268 minutes in the event, while Landaluce has logged 351 minutes — a factor that could matter late in rallies on demanding clay. Looking at recent results, Bellucci has won two straight matches in Rome, including a 154-minute win in the last round and a straight-sets victory prior, after a loss in Madrid three matches ago. Landaluce’s trajectory shows quality scalps and resilience: two wins in Rome (including Marin Cilic) and a three-set loss to Andrea Pellegrino in an earlier round, with match times indicating he’s been tested physically across the last three outings. Both players have been active and taken to extended minutes in this event, so form and recovery between matches will be central.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.1 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Mattia Bellucci versus Martin Landaluce. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Mattia Bellucci versus Martin Landaluce. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Mattia Bellucci - Martin Landaluce) +0.1 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Mattia Bellucci versus Martin Landaluce. Positive values indicate Mattia Bellucci winning more games, negative values indicate Martin Landaluce winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Mattia Bellucci versus Martin Landaluce. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay duel is modest: a predicted aces total of about 7.13. Expected double faults sit at 6.25 for the match. On slow clay, predicted aces tend to drop while expected double faults can rise due to longer points and fatigue; Bellucci’s slightly higher mean serve index may nudge the aces prediction up marginally, but the surface dampens any big serving advantage.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 7.1 Most likely: 7 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 6.2 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Mattia Bellucci versus Martin Landaluce. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Mattia Bellucci versus Martin Landaluce. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Mattia Bellucci versus Martin Landaluce. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Mattia Bellucci versus Martin Landaluce. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

38.1% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Mattia Bellucci's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (31.1%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Mattia Bellucci's perspective. Format: BO3.

Final Prediction

Landaluce’s higher Elo and marginally better form give him the narrow edge in the model, but the match could tilt if his heavier minutes catch up with him. Watch stamina and consistency on serve-return exchanges — whoever handles the long clay rallies and late-match pressure will likely decide a compact encounter.

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