Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Mattia Bellucci vs Tomas Machac Prediction

Mattia Bellucci

Rank: #64
46%
VS

Tomas Machac

Rank: #22
54%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Tomas Machac

Player Metrics

Mattia Bellucci

Form Index: 49.2
ELO Rating: 839.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1546.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 83.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.4
Clay: 5.7
Grass: 6.8
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 86.4

Tomas Machac

Form Index: 51.8
ELO Rating: 1144.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1594.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.2
Clay: 14.0
Grass: 13.1
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 86.8

Recent Matches

Mattia Bellucci

  • Last Match: vs Adam Walton (2-0) hard Shanghai 83 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Ethan Quinn (1-2) hard Tokio 166 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Yasutaka Uchiyama (2-1) hard Tokio 166 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Juncheng Shang (3-1) hard Us Open 174 min

Tomas Machac

  • Last Match: vs Sho Shimabukuro (0-2) hard Tokio 89 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Taylor Fritz (0-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Ugo Blanchet (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Joao Fonseca (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Luca Nardi (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Mattia Bellucci
vs
0
Tomas Machac
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 64 at the Masters 1000 tournament in Shanghai, Mattia Bellucci faces off against Tomas Machac on hard courts. The predicted winner is Tomas Machac, who has a 53.86% probability of winning the match, compared to Mattia Bellucci's 46.14%. The anticipated total number of games played in this contest is 23.0.

Match Analysis

Mattia Bellucci is currently ranked 64th with a form index of 49.18, showing some inconsistency in his recent performances. His Elo rating stands at 839.69, and he has accumulated a significant fatigue level of 83.0 minutes from the tournament. His surface strength index of 7.37 indicates moderate capability on hard courts, while his mean serve index of 97.31 and mean return index of 86.40 suggest he has a strong serving game, although his return game could be improved. In contrast, Tomas Machac, ranked 22nd, has a higher form index of 51.76 and a robust Elo rating of 1143.98. Notably, Machac has zero cumulative fatigue, granting him an advantage in stamina. His surface strength index is significantly better at 13.20, and while his mean serve index of 95.14 is slightly lower, his mean return index of 86.77 shows a superior return game compared to Bellucci. In their recent matches, Bellucci has shown mixed results, winning against Adam Walton but losing to Ethan Quinn despite a competitive effort. Conversely, Machac lost his last two matches against Sho Shimabukuro and Taylor Fritz, where he struggled to secure any sets. However, he did find success against Ugo Blanchet, indicating his potential to rebound.

Final Prediction

Tomas Machac has the edge in this matchup, primarily due to his superior rank, lower fatigue, and better overall performance metrics on hard surfaces. A key factor to monitor will be how both players handle their serve, particularly if Bellucci can leverage his strong serve index against Machac's return capabilities.