Almaty Kazakhstan Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Prediction

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Rank: #71
33%
VS

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Rank: #128
67%
Expected Total Games: 24.8
Predicted Winner: Nikoloz Basilashvili

Why the Model Favors Nikoloz Basilashvili

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +5.8 Nikoloz Basilashvili
Serve & return game +5.3 Nikoloz Basilashvili
Overall record & opposition quality +4.1 Nikoloz Basilashvili
Age +3.0 Facundo Diaz Acosta
Surface fit +2.3 Nikoloz Basilashvili

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 67% for Nikoloz Basilashvili. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Facundo Diaz Acosta

  • Current #71 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #108 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #181 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #247 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #228 2025-10-20

Nikoloz Basilashvili

  • Current #128 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #130 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #120 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #105 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #96 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Form Index: 29.0
ELO Rating: 1522.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1545.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 139.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.5
Clay: 14.3
Grass: 1.0
Serve Rating: 94.6
Return Rating: 88.8

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Form Index: 57.8
ELO Rating: 1653.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1695.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 252.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 21.2
Clay: 23.3
Grass: 11.5
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 87.1

Recent Matches

Facundo Diaz Acosta
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

Nikoloz Basilashvili
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Marin Cilic (2-0) hard Almaty 81 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Adam Walton (2-0) hard Almaty 93 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Taro Daniel (2-0) hard Almaty 78 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Adrian Mannarino (0-1) hard Shanghai 47 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Liam Draxl (2-1) hard Shanghai 163 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Facundo Diaz Acosta
vs
0
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Nikoloz Basilashvili is favored in this Round of 16 match, with a 67% chance of winning against Facundo Diaz Acosta’s 33%. The forecast expects 24.7 total games, pointing to a contest that could be close despite Basilashvili’s clear advantage.

Match Analysis

Basilashvili arrives on a three-match winning streak in Almaty, with all three victories in straight sets. His latest, an 81-minute win over Marin Cilic, contrasts with Diaz Acosta’s longer three-set victory over Thiago Agustin Tirante. The Argentine’s win did, however, end a run of two hard-court losses. Basilashvili has the slight serving advantage and the stronger overall serve-and-return balance, while Diaz Acosta is the more effective returner. Basilashvili also has the better fit on hard courts. He has spent 252 minutes on court in the tournament, compared with 139 for Diaz Acosta, giving the Argentine more physical margin.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.8 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Facundo Diaz Acosta - Nikoloz Basilashvili) -1.8 Most likely spread: -2 (Nikoloz Basilashvili wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Basilashvili is projected to hit 9.2 aces and 3.5 double faults, against 4.7 aces and 2.5 double faults for Diaz Acosta. Basilashvili’s stronger serve fits the larger ace estimate, though he is also projected to make more double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.6 Most likely: 11 aces Per player: Facundo Diaz Acosta 4.7 + Nikoloz Basilashvili 9.2
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.0 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Facundo Diaz Acosta 2.5 + Nikoloz Basilashvili 3.5

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Expected 4.7 aces

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Expected 9.2 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Expected 2.5 double faults

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Expected 3.5 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

36.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Facundo Diaz Acosta's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (37.7%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Diaz Acosta’s stronger returning gives him a way to challenge the favorite. If he can put consistent pressure on Basilashvili’s serve, the favorite’s advantage could shrink.

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