Almaty Almaty Hard Atp 250 Semifinals

Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Prediction

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Rank: #128
36%
VS

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Rank: #39
64%
Expected Total Games: 25.4
Predicted Winner: Stefanos Tsitsipas

Why the Model Favors Stefanos Tsitsipas

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +5.2 Stefanos Tsitsipas
Overall strength +3.8 Stefanos Tsitsipas
Overall record & opposition quality +2.0 Stefanos Tsitsipas
Age +2.0 Stefanos Tsitsipas
Serve & return game +1.0 Nikoloz Basilashvili

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 64% for Stefanos Tsitsipas. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Nikoloz Basilashvili

  • Current #128 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #130 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #120 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #105 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #96 2025-10-20

Stefanos Tsitsipas

  • Current #39 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #51 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #80 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #35 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #25 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Form Index: 61.4
ELO Rating: 1684.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1714.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 387.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 23.9
Clay: 23.3
Grass: 11.5
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 89.2

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Form Index: 60.7
ELO Rating: 1871.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1796.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 253.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 40.1
Clay: 28.1
Grass: 13.7
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 85.9

Recent Matches

Nikoloz Basilashvili
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Stefanos Tsitsipas
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Nikoloz Basilashvili
vs
0
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Stefanos Tsitsipas is favoured at 64% to Nikoloz Basilashvili’s 36%, a clear but not decisive advantage. The forecast points to 25.4 total games in the Almaty Semifinals.

Match Analysis

Tsitsipas has the stronger overall profile, reflected in his ranking of 39 against Basilashvili’s 128, and he is the better hard-court player. His wins over James Duckworth and Mikhail Kukushkin came in straight sets, though he needed three sets to get past Aleksandar Kovacevic. Basilashvili has also been sharp, winning three straight matches in straight sets, including against Marin Cilic. His stronger return gives him a way to unsettle Tsitsipas, but he has spent more time on court this week: 387 minutes to Tsitsipas’s 253. That workload may matter if the match stretches toward the projected total.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.4 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Nikoloz Basilashvili - Stefanos Tsitsipas) -2.1 Most likely spread: -3 (Stefanos Tsitsipas wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Basilashvili is projected for 8.3 aces and 3.6 double faults, while Tsitsipas is forecast for 9.1 aces and 2.8 double faults. Their serve profiles are similar, so the expected ace totals are close, while Basilashvili’s higher double-fault estimate leaves him less margin on serve.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.4 Most likely: 15 aces Per player: Nikoloz Basilashvili 8.3 + Stefanos Tsitsipas 9.1
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Nikoloz Basilashvili 3.6 + Stefanos Tsitsipas 2.8

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Expected 8.3 aces

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Expected 9.1 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Expected 3.6 double faults

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Expected 2.8 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

51.2% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Nikoloz Basilashvili's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (38.9%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Basilashvili’s return gives him his best chance to disrupt the favourite’s rhythm. If he can use it to make Tsitsipas work through service games, the ranking and hard-court advantage may count for less.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel