Beijing China Hard Atp 500 Semifinals

Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction

Novak Djokovic

Rank: #11
29%
VS

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #6
71%
Expected Total Games: 24.9
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

Why the Model Favors Daniil Medvedev

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +8.3 Daniil Medvedev
Recent record by level +5.7 Daniil Medvedev
Age +4.8 Daniil Medvedev
Surface fit +1.5 Daniil Medvedev
Recent form +0.8 Novak Djokovic

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 71% for Daniil Medvedev. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Novak Djokovic

  • Current #11 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #7 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #4 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #4 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #5 2025-09-29

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current #6 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #9 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #10 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #13 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #18 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Novak Djokovic

Form Index: 43.0
ELO Rating: 2000.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1993.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 436.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 47.5
Clay: 41.0
Grass: 54.5
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 90.4

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 56.6
ELO Rating: 1895.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1909.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 268.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 48.2
Clay: 28.8
Grass: 24.1
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 89.0

Recent Matches

Novak Djokovic
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Daniil Medvedev
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Novak Djokovic
vs
0
Daniil Medvedev
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Medvedev is the clear pick, with a 71% win probability to Djokovic’s 29%, and the forecast points to 24.9 total games. In this Beijing semifinal, Medvedev’s sharper run through the draw gives him the advantage.

Match Analysis

The biggest separation is in the projected serve-and-return matchup, which favors Medvedev. Djokovic has quality in both areas, but Medvedev’s more favorable profile there gives him the better chance of applying pressure across the match. Medvedev has won all three of his Beijing matches in straight sets, including against Francisco Cerundolo, while Djokovic needed three sets to beat Alexander Zverev and Yunchaokete Bu. Djokovic’s recent results are still strong, but he has spent 436 minutes on court this week, compared with Medvedev’s 268. Medvedev also holds the higher ranking, at No. 6 to Djokovic’s No. 11.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.9 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Novak Djokovic - Daniil Medvedev) -2.0 Most likely spread: -3 (Daniil Medvedev wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Medvedev is projected to hit 8.7 aces and Djokovic 6.3, with hard court conditions allowing both to use their serves without making this solely a power-serving contest. The forecast has Medvedev at 3.1 double faults and Djokovic at 2.2, so the higher ace expectation for Medvedev comes with a slightly greater projected double-fault count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.5 Most likely: 12 aces Per player: Novak Djokovic 6.3 + Daniil Medvedev 8.7
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.2 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Novak Djokovic 2.2 + Daniil Medvedev 3.1

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Novak Djokovic

Expected 6.3 aces

Daniil Medvedev

Expected 8.7 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Novak Djokovic

Expected 2.2 double faults

Daniil Medvedev

Expected 3.1 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

42.8% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Novak Djokovic's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (43.1%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Djokovic’s best route to turning the forecast around is to make his return quality count and disrupt Medvedev’s service rhythm. The workload gap makes that a more demanding task for Djokovic over a potentially long match.

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