Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Round of 16

Nuno Borges vs Alex de Minaur Prediction

Nuno Borges

Rank: #51
34%
VS

Alex de Minaur

Rank: #7
66%
Predicted Games Played: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Alex de Minaur

Ranking Trends

Nuno Borges

  • Current Rank: #51 (2025-09-29)
  • 3 Months Ago: #37 (2025-06-30)
  • 6 Months Ago: #43 (2025-03-31)
  • 9 Months Ago: #36 (2024-12-30)
  • 12 Months Ago: #32 (2024-09-30)

Alex de Minaur

  • Current Rank: #7 (2025-09-29)
  • 3 Months Ago: #11 (2025-06-30)
  • 6 Months Ago: #10 (2025-03-31)
  • 9 Months Ago: #9 (2024-12-30)
  • 12 Months Ago: #11 (2024-09-30)

Player Metrics

Nuno Borges

Form Index: 54.1
ELO Rating: 1233.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1612.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 385.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.9
Clay: 11.2
Grass: 10.3
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 87.4

Alex de Minaur

Form Index: 59.6
ELO Rating: 2462.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1791.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 88.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.3
Clay: 27.1
Grass: 28.5
Serve Rating: 94.4
Return Rating: 87.8

Recent Matches

Nuno Borges
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Juncheng Shang (2-1) hard Shanghai 147 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Aleksandar Vukic (2-0) hard Shanghai 102 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Botic Van De Zandschulp (2-0) hard Shanghai 136 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Taylor Fritz (0-2) hard Tokio 113 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Yosuke Watanuki (2-1) hard Tokio 120 min

Alex de Minaur
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (2-0) hard Shanghai 88 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (1-2) hard Beijing 140 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Rinderknech (2-1) hard Beijing 136 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Yunchaokete Bu (2-0) hard Beijing 87 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (1-3) hard Us Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Nuno Borges
vs
0
Alex de Minaur
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Nuno Borges and Alex de Minaur in the round of 16 at the Shanghai Masters 1000 is set to be an intriguing contest on hard courts. With Borges ranked 51 and de Minaur at 7, the odds favor the Australian, who is predicted to win with a probability of 66.24%, while Borges holds a 33.76% chance of victory. The predicted total number of games played in this match is 24.

Match Analysis

Alex de Minaur boasts a significantly higher ranking and Elo rating, sitting at 7 and 2462.03, compared to Borges at 51 and 1233.01. De Minaur also presents a superior surface strength index (19.32) against Borges’s 10.92, indicating a stronger performance on hard courts. In terms of fatigue, Borges has accumulated 385 minutes on court, significantly higher than de Minaur's 88 minutes, which could impact Borges's performance as fatigue sets in. Notably, the mean serve index shows a difference of just over 2 points (de Minaur at 94.36, Borges at 96.63), while their mean return indices are closely matched, with de Minaur at 87.80 and Borges at 87.39. Recent performances reveal that Borges has won all his last three matches in Shanghai, indicating strong form, especially after two consecutive wins without dropping a set. However, de Minaur has shown resilience, securing a victory over Camilo Ugo Carabelli in his last match. His earlier loss to Jannik Sinner in Beijing demonstrates that he can be challenged, though he rebounded well against Arthur Rinderknech. Overall, de Minaur’s experience and current form position him well against Borges.

Final Prediction

The edge in this matchup lies with Alex de Minaur, whose higher ranking, lower fatigue level, and superior surface strength index suggest a favorable outcome. A key factor to watch will be how Borges manages his fatigue, given the significant minutes he has already spent on court this tournament.