Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Nuno Borges

Rank: #45
37%
VS

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Rank: #5
63%
Expected Total Games: 40.3
Predicted Winner: Felix Auger-Aliassime

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Ranking Trends

Nuno Borges

  • Current #45 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #47 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #40 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #41 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #33 2025-01-13

Felix Auger-Aliassime

  • Current #5 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #12 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #27 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #19 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #23 2025-01-13

Player Metrics

Nuno Borges

Form Index: 38.9
ELO Rating: 1086.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1638.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.5
Clay: 8.6
Grass: 9.5
Serve Rating: 69.5
Return Rating: 55.1

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Form Index: 65.9
ELO Rating: 4190.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1668.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 78.8
Clay: 79.1
Grass: 78.9
Serve Rating: 98.3
Return Rating: 91.3

Recent Matches

Nuno Borges
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Felix Auger-Aliassime
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Nuno Borges
vs
1
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 128 at the Australian Open 2026, Nuno Borges is set to face Felix Auger-Aliassime on the hard courts of Australia. With Auger-Aliassime currently ranked 5th and Borges at 45th, the latter is given a 36.65% probability of victory, while the Canadian boasts a 63.35% chance of winning. The match is expected to feature around 40.28 total games.

Match Analysis

Felix Auger-Aliassime enters this match with an impressive Elo rating of 4190 and a solid form index of 65.92, indicating strong recent performances. He also holds a surface strength index of 78.80 and a mean serve index of 98.29, which significantly outshines Borges’ mean serve index of 69.45. Additionally, Auger-Aliassime's mean return index of 91.30 is markedly higher than Borges' 55.09, showcasing his formidable capabilities in both serving and returning on hard courts. Borges’ recent performances have been mixed; he lost his last match against Eliot Spizzirri and only managed to win one of his last three matches. In contrast, Auger-Aliassime secured a victory against Alexander Bublik but faltered against Jannik Sinner in his most recent encounter.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 40.3 Most likely outcome: 40 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Nuno Borges - Felix Auger-Aliassime) +1.8 Most likely spread: +1 (Nuno Borges wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is anticipated to yield approximately 11.72 expected aces and around 5.05 expected double faults. The hard court surface typically accommodates a balanced number of aces, rewarding players who can serve effectively. Given Auger-Aliassime's significantly higher mean serve index, he is likely to contribute more aces than Borges, who may struggle to match his opponent's serving prowess.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.7 Most likely: 11 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.0 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Felix Auger-Aliassime's superior ranking, form, and serving abilities provide him with a notable advantage heading into this match against Nuno Borges. One key factor to observe will be Auger-Aliassime's service game; his ability to capitalize on his strong serve could prove crucial in securing victory.

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