Pablo Carreno Busta vs Jiri Lehecka: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Lehecka enters with the superior ranking (14 vs 90) and a substantially higher Elo (1839.05 vs 1595.39), reflecting consistently stronger results overall. His surface strength index on clay (33.34) is markedly better than Carreño Busta’s (12.07), and his form index is slightly higher (43.95 vs 38.86). Both players show negligible tournament fatigue (0.0 minutes on court), so freshness won’t be a differentiator. Mean serve indices are nearly identical (Lehecka 95.95, Carreño Busta 95.57), so there’s no clear edge in pure serving power. However, the mean return index favors Carreño Busta (92.10) over Lehecka (85.22) by over 5 points, suggesting Carreño Busta can trouble opponents’ service games more often when playing at his level. Recent form is mixed for both. Carreño Busta has one recent win in Rome against Martin Damm but fell to Alejandro Tabilo and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in other clay outings. Lehecka also split recent matches—beating Jan-Lennard Struff in Rome but losing to Casper Ruud and Arthur Fils in other events. Those results underline Lehecka’s higher baseline level this season, while Carreño Busta’s stronger return game is tempered by inconsistent match outcomes.