Paris Paris Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Quentin Halys vs Arthur Fery Prediction

Quentin Halys

Rank: #46
50%
VS

Arthur Fery

Rank: #32
50%
Expected Total Games: 26.8
Predicted Winner: Quentin Halys

Why the Model Favors Quentin Halys

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +2.4 Quentin Halys
Age +1.9 Arthur Fery
Recent form +1.6 Quentin Halys

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 50% for Quentin Halys. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Quentin Halys

  • Current #46 2026-11-02
  • 3 mo ago #54 2026-08-03
  • 6 mo ago #93 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #79 2026-02-02
  • 12 mo ago #84 2025-11-03

Arthur Fery

  • Current #32 2026-11-02
  • 3 mo ago #36 2026-08-03
  • 6 mo ago #157 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #152 2026-02-02
  • 12 mo ago #197 2025-11-03

Player Metrics

Quentin Halys

Form Index: 40.1
ELO Rating: 1758.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1742.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 28.6
Clay: 28.1
Grass: 5.4
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 85.2

Arthur Fery

Form Index: 40.9
ELO Rating: 1769.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1771.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.3
Clay: 10.8
Grass: 32.3
Serve Rating: 94.4
Return Rating: 87.8

Recent Matches

Quentin Halys
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Arthur Fery
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Quentin Halys
vs
0
Arthur Fery
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Halys is favoured by a narrow margin, 50% to Fery’s 50% after rounding, with 26.8 games expected. The forecast is close enough that a small difference in serving or returning could decide it.

Match Analysis

Halys has the stronger serve, while Fery is the better returner. That contrast is central to the matchup: Halys can earn more free points, but Fery has the tools to make him play more rallies. Their rankings favour Fery, who is 32nd to Halys’ 46th, but recent results offer little separation. Both have lost to Zverev on hard courts, while Fery’s win over Musetti stands out. The forecast’s slight lean toward Halys rests more on the serving and returning balance than on a clear gap in results.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.8 Most likely outcome: 27 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Quentin Halys - Arthur Fery) -0.0 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Halys is projected to hit 11.3 aces and 3.2 double faults, compared with 5.3 aces and 2.1 double faults for Fery. Halys’ stronger serving profile supports the larger ace estimate, while Fery’s return strength gives him a chance to limit the damage.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.8 Most likely: 14 aces Per player: Quentin Halys 11.3 + Arthur Fery 5.3
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.3 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Quentin Halys 3.2 + Arthur Fery 2.1

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Quentin Halys

Expected 11.3 aces

Arthur Fery

Expected 5.3 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Quentin Halys

Expected 3.2 double faults

Arthur Fery

Expected 2.1 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

47.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Quentin Halys's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (28.1%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Fery’s better returning is the clearest threat to the forecast. If he consistently puts Halys’ serve under pressure, he can reduce the value of Halys’ projected ace advantage.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel