Miami FL, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Quentin Halys vs Liam Draxl: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Quentin Halys

Rank: #111
57%
VS

Liam Draxl

Rank: #147
43%
Expected Total Games: 23.9
Predicted Winner: Quentin Halys

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Player Metrics

Quentin Halys

Form Index: 36.9
ELO Rating: 779.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1593.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.6
Clay: 6.7
Grass: 5.5
Serve Rating: 88.6
Return Rating: 36.1

Liam Draxl

Form Index: 51.1
ELO Rating: 526.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1530.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 305.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.2
Clay: 3.8
Grass: 3.6
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 90.6

Recent Matches

Quentin Halys

Liam Draxl

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Quentin Halys
vs
0
Liam Draxl
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Miami Masters 1000 in Florida, Quentin Halys and Liam Draxl meet in the Round of 128 on hard court. The model favors Quentin Halys to advance (56.92% chance) over Liam Draxl (43.08%), with a predicted total of about 23.95 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Halys arrives with the higher ranking (No. 111) and a substantially higher Elo (779.76) than Draxl (Elo 526.92), and he shows zero accumulated fatigue from this event. His form index is modest at 36.87 and his surface strength index is 4.63. Draxl, ranked 147, carries heavy minutes into Miami (305 minutes of fatigue), but posts a stronger short-term form index (51.12) and a surface strength index of 4.18. The serving matchup is notable: Draxl’s mean serve index (95.99) is more than 5 points higher than Halys’s (88.60), and his mean return index (90.59) dwarfs Halys’s return figure (36.11) by an even wider margin — both differences are meaningful and worth watching. Recent results underline contrasting trajectories. Halys has won one of his last three matches (a straight-sets win over Alexander Shevchenko) but followed with defeats to Jack Draper and Adam Walton at hard-court events. Draxl has two straight wins at Miami — over Cristian Garin and Jay Clarke, both long matches — and a prior loss at Indian Wells to Ignacio Buse. The combination of Draxl’s match rhythm and heavy court time versus Halys’s fresher legs and higher overall Elo creates a close contest.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.9 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Quentin Halys versus Liam Draxl. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Quentin Halys versus Liam Draxl. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Quentin Halys - Liam Draxl) +0.7 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Quentin Halys versus Liam Draxl. Positive values indicate Quentin Halys winning more games, negative values indicate Liam Draxl winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Quentin Halys versus Liam Draxl. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is about 10.28 total, while the expected double faults sit at roughly 3.75. On Miami’s medium-paced hard courts, these predicted aces align with a surface that produces a moderate number of free points — not as many as grass but more than clay. With Draxl’s significantly higher serve rating, he should be the primary driver of the predicted aces total; serve pressure may also elevate the expected double faults if rallies are shortened.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.3 Most likely: 10 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 3.8 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Quentin Halys versus Liam Draxl. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Quentin Halys versus Liam Draxl. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Quentin Halys versus Liam Draxl. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Quentin Halys versus Liam Draxl. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Halys’s edge comes from a superior Elo and fresher legs, which the model weighs against Draxl’s recent wins and stronger serve/return metrics. The key factor to watch is whether Draxl’s heavier court load blunts the potency of his serve and return; if it does, Halys’s greater freshness could decide the tight margins.

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