Rafael Jodar vs Alex de Minaur: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Rafael Jodar (No. 42) arrives with a high form index (92.35) and an Elo of 1805.7, but carries 151 minutes of court time already at this event. His surface strength sits at 43.37, and his mean serve and return indices are balanced in the low 60s (serve 62.40, return 62.85), indicating solid all-court competence on clay. Alex de Minaur (No. 8) has a slightly higher Elo (1818.67) and a surface strength of 45.82, with zero accumulated fatigue for this tournament. His form index is lower (44.58), but his serve and return indices are markedly stronger (serve 96.03, return 87.79). The gap in serving (≈33.6 points) and in returning (≈24.9 points) is material — de Minaur’s numbers point to a clear edge on both serve power and return consistency. Over the last three matches, Jodar has two wins and one loss on clay, including a 2-1 win in Madrid and a recent four-set loss in Barcelona; his recent matches include long court time. De Minaur’s recent slate shows mixed results on clay (one solid win, two losses), with match durations ranging from 95–144 minutes and no tournament fatigue here.