Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Quarterfinals

Rafael Jodar vs Casper Ruud Prediction

Rafael Jodar

Rank: #13
48%
VS

Casper Ruud

Rank: #24
52%
Expected Total Games: 26.1
Predicted Winner: Casper Ruud

Why the Model Favors Casper Ruud

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +6.8 Casper Ruud
Age +3.8 Rafael Jodar
Surface fit +3.5 Rafael Jodar
Overall strength +2.8 Casper Ruud
Recent record by level +1.9 Rafael Jodar

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 52% for Casper Ruud. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Rafael Jodar

  • Current #13 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #26 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #57 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #165 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #309 2025-09-29

Casper Ruud

  • Current #24 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #12 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #12 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #12 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #12 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Rafael Jodar

Form Index: 57.9
ELO Rating: 1910.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1931.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 434.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 39.5
Clay: 37.5
Grass: 12.1
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 91.4

Casper Ruud

Form Index: 51.6
ELO Rating: 1847.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1853.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 248.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 33.8
Clay: 42.8
Grass: 22.2
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 87.9

Recent Matches

Rafael Jodar
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Casper Ruud
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Rafael Jodar
vs
0
Casper Ruud
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Casper Ruud is a narrow favorite, with the forecast giving him 52% to Rafael Jodar’s 48%. The projection is 26.1 total games in this Shanghai quarterfinal.

Match Analysis

Ruud’s slight serving advantage and better combined work across serve-and-return games provide the main basis for his narrow lead. The broader strength comparison also favors him, despite Jodar’s higher ranking. Jodar counters with better hard-court suitability and a stronger return, while age also points in his favor. He has won three straight in Shanghai, including three-set victories over Jiri Lehecka and Botic van de Zandschulp. That run has come at a cost: Jodar has spent 434 minutes on court, compared with Ruud’s 248.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.1 Most likely outcome: 26 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Rafael Jodar - Casper Ruud) -0.8 Most likely spread: -1 (Casper Ruud wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Ruud is projected for 7.4 aces and 2.3 double faults, against 5.0 aces and 2.0 double faults for Jodar. Ruud’s slight serving advantage accounts for the projected gap in aces, while the double-fault estimates are close.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.2 Most likely: 10 aces Per player: Rafael Jodar 5.0 + Casper Ruud 7.4
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.3 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Rafael Jodar 2.0 + Casper Ruud 2.3

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Rafael Jodar

Expected 5.0 aces

Casper Ruud

Expected 7.4 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Rafael Jodar

Expected 2.0 double faults

Casper Ruud

Expected 2.3 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

39.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Rafael Jodar's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (30.6%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Jodar’s stronger returning could disrupt Ruud’s serving advantage and swing a close match. The forecast gives Ruud only a slim margin, so that matchup may prove decisive.

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