Rafael Jodar vs Learner Tien: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jodar arrives with higher form (75.7) and a superior Elo (1891.7) compared with Tien’s form index of 52.6 and Elo of 1787.3, suggesting recent momentum and consistency for Jodar. Fatigue tells a different story: Jodar has logged 237 minutes on court this week versus Tien’s 195, which could matter late on clay. On the surface-specific metrics, Jodar’s surface strength index (34.9) is higher than Tien’s (17.7), indicating Jodar is more comfortable on clay. Both players show very similar mean serve indices (Jodar 94.82, Tien 94.68), so service firepower is effectively even; differences in return ability are also modest. Over the last three matches Jodar has beaten Nuno Borges and Matteo Arnaldi here in Rome before dropping to Jannik Sinner in Madrid; his wins in Rome were extended affairs, suggesting resilience in long rallies. Tien’s Rome run includes a tight win over Alexander Bublik and a straightforward victory over Damir Dzumhur, bookended by a loss in Madrid. Tien’s results in Rome show he has navigated pressure matches this week, which likely factors into his higher win probability despite lower surface comfort.