Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Quarterfinals

Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Rafael Jodar

Rank: #34
48%
VS

Luciano Darderi

Rank: #20
52%
Expected Total Games: 27.9
Predicted Winner: Luciano Darderi

Ranking Trends

Rafael Jodar

  • Current Rank: #34 (2026-05-04)
  • 3 Months Ago: #124 (2026-02-02)
  • 6 Months Ago: #166 (2025-11-03)
  • 9 Months Ago: #478 (2025-07-28)
  • 12 Months Ago: #1000 (None)

Luciano Darderi

  • Current Rank: #20 (2026-05-04)
  • 3 Months Ago: #23 (2026-02-02)
  • 6 Months Ago: #26 (2025-11-03)
  • 9 Months Ago: #34 (2025-08-04)
  • 12 Months Ago: #46 (2025-05-05)

Player Metrics

Rafael Jodar

Form Index: 76.2
ELO Rating: 1916.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1914.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 312.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 26.0
Clay: 35.9
Grass: 7.4
Serve Rating: 94.9
Return Rating: 90.7

Luciano Darderi

Form Index: 58.3
ELO Rating: 1783.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1803.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 377.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 20.5
Clay: 34.7
Grass: 15.6
Serve Rating: 94.5
Return Rating: 84.5

Recent Matches

Rafael Jodar
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Learner Tien (2-0) clay Rome 75 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Matteo Arnaldi (2-1) clay Rome 121 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Nuno Borges (2-0) clay Rome 116 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (0-2) clay Madrid 116 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Vit Kopriva (2-0) clay Madrid 78 min

Luciano Darderi
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Zverev (2-1) clay Rome 144 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Tommy Paul (2-1) clay Rome 143 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Yannick Hanfmann (2-0) clay Rome 90 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Cerundolo (0-2) clay Madrid 74 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo (2-0) clay Madrid 78 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Rafael Jodar
vs
0
Luciano Darderi
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Rome Masters 1000 quarterfinal on clay, Luciano Darderi is narrowly tipped to beat Rafael Jodar. The model gives Darderi a 51.69% chance to win versus 48.31% for Jodar, with an expected total of about 27.9 games in the match.

Match Analysis

On paper the matchup is tight: Jodar sits at No.34 with a stronger form index (76.23) and a higher Elo (1916.49), while Darderi is ranked No.20 with lower form (58.33) and an Elo of 1783.26. Fatigue is a live factor — Darderi has accumulated 377 minutes in Rome compared with Jodar’s 312, a gap that could matter in late rallies on slow clay. Both players show similar surface strength indices (Jodar 35.92, Darderi 34.70), indicating neither has a pronounced clay advantage. Serve metrics are almost identical (mean serve index 94.92 vs 94.51), so serve power shouldn’t be a decisive swing; by contrast, Jodar’s mean return index (90.71) is notably higher than Darderi’s (84.46), a difference greater than five points that favors Jodar as the primary breaker. Over their last three matches both men are undefeated in Rome: Jodar’s wins came in shorter to mid-length matches (75, 121, 116 minutes) while Darderi has endured two marathon wins (144, 143 minutes) plus a 90-minute victory — a pattern that explains both his momentum and his greater cumulative fatigue.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 27.9 Most likely outcome: 28 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Rafael Jodar - Luciano Darderi) +0.7 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay quarterfinal is modest: predicted aces for the match are about 8.69 overall, reflecting the slow surface that suppresses free points. Expected double faults are 3.69; clay’s longer rallies and the tournament-stage fatigue make an elevated double faults prediction plausible. Neither player posts a significantly higher serve rating to push the ace count above clay norms, so the expected aces and expected double faults align with surface tendencies.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.7 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.7 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

39.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Rafael Jodar's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (36.3%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Darderi’s narrow edge stems from ranking and recent wins through tough opposition despite heavier court time; Jodar’s superior return and form keep this finely balanced. The key factor to watch will be whether Jodar’s returning pressure can overcome Darderi’s resilience under fatigue.

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