Matteo Arnaldi vs Rafael Jodar: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jodar arrives as the higher-ranked and more established player: world No. 34 with an Elo of 1884, versus Arnaldi’s No. 106 ranking and 1555 Elo. Form indices also tilt heavily toward Jodar (75.4) compared with Arnaldi (34.9), and his surface-strength index (33.8) is notably higher than Arnaldi’s (19.5), suggesting Jodar’s clay game is better-rated in this dataset. Fatigue is a striking difference — Arnaldi has logged 329 minutes in Rome so far, while Jodar has played 116 — a factor that could influence late-match intensity and error rates. Serve and return profiles are telling: mean serve indexes are comparable (Arnaldi 96.07, Jodar 94.14), so neither has a clear serving dominance, but Arnaldi’s mean return index (92.27) is substantially higher than Jodar’s (84.80), a gap greater than five points that favors Arnaldi’s ability to pressure serve games. Over their last three matches at clay events, Arnaldi has two wins in Rome (including a taxing 176-minute match) and a prior loss in Madrid; Jodar has also won two of his last three, with a straight-sets win in Rome and a loss to a top opponent in Madrid. Both have recent clay match play, but Arnaldi’s heavier court time stands out.