Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Collignon stems primarily from his recent record by level — he’s backed by two quick grass wins at Halle that the engine values highly. Collignon arrives with a stronger form index (61.17 vs Popyrin’s 33.02) and a higher Elo (1673.6 vs 1591.1), which together push the probability his way; overall record and opposition quality also add weight in his favor. The model also notes age and the serve/return matchup as small contributors toward Collignon. Looking at the raw numbers, Collignon is the higher-ranked player (51 to 90) and has posted efficient victories on grass this week (straight sets over Roberto Bautista Agut and Aziz Dougaz). He does carry 131 minutes of court time in the event, while Popyrin shows zero tournament fatigue. Popyrin’s underlying tools remain strong: very high mean serve (96.34) and return indices (89.37) and a reasonable surface strength index (8.39). Recent form for Popyrin is mixed — a solid win over Taylor Fritz in Geneva but back-to-back losses on clay to Casper Ruud and Zachary Svajda. Collignon’s last three show two clean grass wins and a five-set loss on clay, suggesting his current grass rhythm is the decisive short-term trend.