Adelaide Australia Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Reilly Opelka vs Alexei Popyrin Prediction

Reilly Opelka

Rank: #60
60%
VS

Alexei Popyrin

Rank: #50
40%
Expected Total Games: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Reilly Opelka

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Ranking Trends

Reilly Opelka

  • Current #60 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #62 2025-10-13
  • 6 mo ago #66 2025-07-14
  • 9 mo ago #105 2025-04-14
  • 12 mo ago #170 2025-01-13

Alexei Popyrin

  • Current #50 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #48 2025-10-13
  • 6 mo ago #24 2025-07-14
  • 9 mo ago #25 2025-04-14
  • 12 mo ago #24 2025-01-13

Player Metrics

Reilly Opelka

Form Index: 46.4
ELO Rating: 845.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1534.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 30.7
Clay: 18.6
Grass: 23.0
Serve Rating: 94.5
Return Rating: 15.8

Alexei Popyrin

Form Index: 0.0
ELO Rating: 973.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1680.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 32.8
Clay: 30.4
Grass: 22.6
Serve Rating: 66.4
Return Rating: 41.8

Recent Matches

Reilly Opelka
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Alexei Popyrin
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Reilly Opelka
vs
0
Alexei Popyrin
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the Adelaide tournament, Reilly Opelka is set to face Alexei Popyrin on hard court. The matchup sees Opelka as the predicted winner with a 60.04% probability of success, while Popyrin's chances stand at 39.96%. The predicted total number of games played in this encounter is 24.0.

Match Analysis

Reilly Opelka, currently ranked 60th, has a form index of 46.38 and an Elo rating of 845.61. He has shown resilience in recent matches, though his last outing resulted in a loss. His mean serve index of 94.53, significantly higher than Popyrin's 66.40, suggests a powerful serve that could dominate the match. Opelka's return index stands at 15.76, which is notably lower than Popyrin’s 41.83, indicating that while he may struggle on return, his serve is a strong asset. With no cumulative fatigue from the current tournament, Opelka will enter the match fresh. On the other hand, Alexei Popyrin, ranked 50th with an Elo rating of 973.04, has a surface strength index of 32.78, slightly above Opelka’s. However, Popyrin's form index is at 0.0, which reflects a lackluster performance in his recent matches, including his most recent loss where he won only one set. His last three matches have resulted in defeats against capable opponents, showing a pattern of struggle in closing out matches, which may affect his confidence heading into this encounter.

Final Prediction

Reilly Opelka's superior serving ability and current freshness give him a crucial edge in this matchup against Alexei Popyrin. A key factor to watch will be how Opelka’s serve impacts Popyrin's ability to return, potentially dictating the flow of the match.

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