Adelaide Australia Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Reilly Opelka vs Tommy Paul Prediction

Reilly Opelka

Rank: #60
49%
VS

Tommy Paul

Rank: #20
51%
Expected Total Games: 25.0
Predicted Winner: Tommy Paul

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Ranking Trends

Reilly Opelka

  • Current #60 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #62 2025-10-13
  • 6 mo ago #66 2025-07-14
  • 9 mo ago #105 2025-04-14
  • 12 mo ago #170 2025-01-13

Tommy Paul

  • Current #20 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #18 2025-10-13
  • 6 mo ago #16 2025-07-14
  • 9 mo ago #12 2025-04-14
  • 12 mo ago #11 2025-01-13

Player Metrics

Reilly Opelka

Form Index: 62.6
ELO Rating: 867.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1538.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 83
Surface Strength:
Hard: 30.6
Clay: 18.6
Grass: 23.0
Serve Rating: 94.6
Return Rating: 14.4

Tommy Paul

Form Index: 45.9
ELO Rating: 1954.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1810.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 63.3
Clay: 53.0
Grass: 47.0
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 93.9

Recent Matches

Reilly Opelka
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Tommy Paul
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Reilly Opelka
vs
1
Tommy Paul
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 at the Adelaide tournament, Reilly Opelka faces off against Tommy Paul on hard courts. The match is part of an ATP 250 event taking place in Australia. Tommy Paul is predicted to emerge victorious, with a win probability of 51.39% compared to Reilly Opelka's 48.61%. The predicted total number of games played is set at 25.0.

Match Analysis

Reilly Opelka is currently ranked 60th, with a form index of 62.60 and an Elo rating of 867.23. He has encountered some fatigue, having spent 83 minutes on court during this tournament. His surface strength index stands at 30.57, and his mean serve index is impressive at 94.57, although his mean return index is significantly lower at 14.37. This disparity indicates a potential vulnerability in his return game. In contrast, Tommy Paul is ranked 20th, boasting a higher Elo rating of 1954.08 and a mean serve index of 96.17, which is just above Opelka's. However, he excels in his return game with a mean return index of 93.86, showcasing a substantial advantage over Opelka's return capabilities. Both players have faced challenges in their recent performances; Opelka won his last match convincingly but lost two of his previous three matches, while Paul has struggled in his last three matches, managing only one win.

Final Prediction

Tommy Paul's edge lies in his superior return game and overall higher performance metrics despite recent struggles. The key factor to watch in this match will be how Opelka's serve holds up against Paul's strong return capabilities, as this could significantly influence the match's outcome.

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