Alexander Bublik vs Rinky Hijikata: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Bublik arrives as the clear higher-ranked player (No. 10) with a very large Elo advantage (2,845.74 vs 745.06). His form index sits at 52.30 and his surface strength index is 16.58; fatigue from the tournament is modest (125 minutes on court). Hijikata is ranked 117 with a slightly stronger recent form index (59.77) but a much higher cumulative fatigue (463 minutes) and a lower surface strength index (6.76). There is a marked gap in serving and returning metrics: Hijikata’s mean serve index (97.45) is substantially higher than Bublik’s (80.01), and Hijikata’s mean return index (91.55) far outstrips Bublik’s (33.04)—both differences exceed 5 points and will be central to the match-up. Across their last three matches, Bublik is 2-1 with wins at Indian Wells and Dubai (notably a three-set win in 125 minutes most recently), and a straight-sets loss to Tallon Griekspoor prior. Hijikata has been undefeated in his three Indian Wells matches, posting three wins with lengthy matches (107–133 minutes range), which helps explain his high fatigue total. Those recent results suggest Hijikata arrives with momentum but also with significantly more time spent on court.