Shanghai Shanghai Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Rinky Hijikata vs Roman Safiullin Prediction

Rinky Hijikata

Rank: #85
39%
VS

Roman Safiullin

Rank: #79
61%
Expected Total Games: 27.3
Predicted Winner: Roman Safiullin

Why the Model Favors Roman Safiullin

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent form +5.4 Roman Safiullin
Serve & return game +2.7 Roman Safiullin
Recent record by level +2.2 Roman Safiullin
Age +1.4 Rinky Hijikata
Fatigue & recent workload +1.0 Rinky Hijikata

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 61% for Roman Safiullin. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Rinky Hijikata

  • Current #85 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #82 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #100 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #111 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #114 2025-09-29

Roman Safiullin

  • Current #79 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #132 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #229 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #170 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #106 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Rinky Hijikata

Form Index: 34.0
ELO Rating: 1630.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1691.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.3
Clay: 7.4
Grass: 10.4
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 88.5

Roman Safiullin

Form Index: 65.8
ELO Rating: 1815.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1817.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 142.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 23.3
Clay: 17.2
Grass: 23.5
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 87.1

Recent Matches

Rinky Hijikata
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Roman Safiullin
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Rinky Hijikata
vs
0
Roman Safiullin
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Roman Safiullin is favoured, with a 61% win probability to Rinky Hijikata’s 39%, and 27.3 games are expected. The forecast gives Safiullin a solid edge, but not a decisive one.

Match Analysis

Safiullin’s recent run is the main separation: after losing to Andrey Rublev in Beijing, he has won back-to-back straight-set matches in Shanghai, against Alexis Galarneau and Shintaro Mochizuki. Hijikata’s last three results are more uneven, with a win over Camilo Ugo Carabelli between losses to Rublev and Stefanos Tsitsipas. Safiullin also has the stronger recent record by level and a slight advantage in the combined service-and-return matchup, though their serve and return strengths are close. Hijikata has some counterweight in age and workload: he has played no minutes in Shanghai so far, while Safiullin has spent 142 minutes on court.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 27.3 Most likely outcome: 27 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Rinky Hijikata - Roman Safiullin) -2.0 Most likely spread: -2 (Roman Safiullin wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Hijikata is projected to serve 6.0 aces and 2.8 double faults, compared with 7.4 aces and 2.9 double faults for Safiullin. Their serve strengths are closely matched, which fits the narrow double-fault gap, while the ace forecast gives Safiullin a modest advantage.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.1 Most likely: 11 aces Per player: Rinky Hijikata 6.0 + Roman Safiullin 7.4
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Rinky Hijikata 2.8 + Roman Safiullin 2.9

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Rinky Hijikata

Expected 6.0 aces

Roman Safiullin

Expected 7.4 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Rinky Hijikata

Expected 2.8 double faults

Roman Safiullin

Expected 2.9 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

37.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Rinky Hijikata's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (34.7%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

If Safiullin’s 142 minutes in Shanghai begin to tell, Hijikata could make the workload gap count.

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