Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Sebastian Baez vs Roman Andres Burruchaga: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Sebastian Baez

Rank: #62
43%
VS

Roman Andres Burruchaga

Rank: #66
57%
Expected Total Games: 38.7
Predicted Winner: Roman Andres Burruchaga

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Ranking Trends

Sebastian Baez

  • Current #62 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #52 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #45 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #39 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #38 2025-05-26

Roman Andres Burruchaga

  • Current #66 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #96 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #105 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #142 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #118 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Sebastian Baez

Form Index: 30.5
ELO Rating: 1621.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1728.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.7
Clay: 14.7
Grass: 12.4
Serve Rating: 95.4
Return Rating: 95.6

Roman Andres Burruchaga

Form Index: 31.1
ELO Rating: 1562.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1618.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.6
Clay: 15.7
Grass: 9.5
Serve Rating: 93.9
Return Rating: 90.6

Recent Matches

Sebastian Baez
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Alex Michelsen (0-2) clay Geneva 80 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Bublik (0-2) clay Rome 59 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Jenson Brooksby (2-0) clay Rome 102 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Vilius Gaubas (0-2) clay Madrid 89 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Machac (1-2) clay Barcelona 99 min

Roman Andres Burruchaga
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Sebastian Baez
vs
0
Roman Andres Burruchaga
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Roland Garros in Paris returns to the main draw with a first-round clay duel in the Round of 128 between Sebastian Baez and Roman Andres Burruchaga. The model gives the edge to Burruchaga, who is forecast to win with a 57.05% probability versus 42.95% for Baez, and the match is expected to play out to roughly 38.69 total games.

Match Analysis

Baez enters ranked 62 with an Elo of 1621.3 and a form index of 30.49; Burruchaga is close behind at rank 66 with an Elo of 1562.1 and a form index of 31.11. Both players show zero cumulative tournament fatigue ahead of this encounter. Surface strength indices are similar (Baez 14.67, Burruchaga 15.65), suggesting neither has a marked clay-court advantage on paper. Baez posts a marginally higher mean serve index (95.41 vs 93.90), so there is no clear-serving dominance, but his mean return index (95.63) is notably higher than Burruchaga’s (90.58) by just over five points, which could tip tight service games toward Baez. Recent form paints contrasting short-term trajectories. Baez has 1 win and 2 losses in his last three matches, with a solid straight-sets win over Jenson Brooksby followed by defeats in Rome and Geneva. Burruchaga arrives on a three-match losing streak, including straight-set defeats in Hamburg and Rome and a 1–2 loss to Tommy Paul in Houston; the results underline vulnerability but also that these have mostly been competitive clay matches.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 38.7 Most likely outcome: 38 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Sebastian Baez - Roman Andres Burruchaga) -0.8 Most likely spread: -1 (Roman Andres Burruchaga wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is low — the model’s predicted aces total is 7.1 — while the expected double faults tally sits at about 7.94. Clay’s slower, higher bounce typically reduces aces and lengthens points, and that surface context supports the lower predicted aces and the higher expected double faults. Neither player has a significantly higher serve rating, so a big disparity in ace count is unlikely.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 7.1 Most likely: 7 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 7.9 Most likely: 7 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

32.3% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Sebastian Baez's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (21.7%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Burruchaga’s slight edge in the model comes from a combination of comparable baseline metrics and a marginal probabilistic tilt despite Baez’s superior return profile. The key factor to watch will be Baez’s ability to convert return pressure into breaks early—if he does, the balance could swing in his favor.

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