Winston Salem NC, U.S.A. Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Sebastian Baez vs Pablo Carreno Busta Prediction

Sebastian Baez

Rank: #43
64%
VS

Pablo Carreno Busta

Rank: #93
36%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Sebastian Baez

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Ranking Trends

Sebastian Baez

  • Current #43 2025-08-04
  • 3 mo ago #36 2025-05-19
  • 6 mo ago #31 2025-02-17
  • 9 mo ago #27 2024-11-18
  • 12 mo ago #21 2024-08-19

Pablo Carreno Busta

  • Current #93 2025-08-04
  • 3 mo ago #100 2025-05-19
  • 6 mo ago #111 2025-02-17
  • 9 mo ago #199 2024-11-18
  • 12 mo ago #299 2024-08-19

Player Metrics

Sebastian Baez

Form Index: 28.5
ELO Rating: 1021.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1608.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.6
Clay: 9.1
Grass: 13.4
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 89.6

Pablo Carreno Busta

Form Index: 42.1
ELO Rating: 513.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1507.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 58.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.4
Clay: 3.9
Grass: 2.9
Serve Rating: 94.4
Return Rating: 85.3

Recent Matches

Sebastian Baez
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Pablo Carreno Busta
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Yoshihito Nishioka (1-0) hard Winston Salem 58 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Leandro Riedi (0-2) hard Cincinnati 101 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Fils (0-2) hard Toronto 88 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Liam Draxl (2-1) hard Toronto 141 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Frances Tiafoe (0-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Sebastian Baez
vs
0
Pablo Carreno Busta
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the Winston-Salem tournament, taking place on hard courts in North Carolina, Sebastian Baez faces Pablo Carreno Busta. The prediction favors Baez as the likely winner, with a probability of 63.79% compared to Carreno Busta's 36.21%. The match is expected to feature a total of approximately 23 games.

Match Analysis

Sebastian Baez, currently ranked 43, has a form index of 28.49 and an Elo rating of 1021.07, indicating a solid competitive level. He showcases a surface strength index of 9.62, which is significantly higher than Carreno Busta's 5.44, providing Baez an advantage on hard courts. Additionally, Baez's mean serve index of 96.59 exceeds Carreno Busta's 94.42 by more than 5 points, which could play a crucial role in securing vital service games. On the other hand, Carreno Busta, ranked 93, has a form index of 42.12, a notably lower Elo rating of 513.00, and is currently experiencing fatigue after accumulating 58 minutes on court during the tournament. In their recent performances, Baez's last three matches reflect a mixed bag, with one win against David Goffin, while he suffered defeats to Gabriel Diallo and Yannick Hanfmann. Conversely, Carreno Busta achieved a win against Yoshihito Nishioka but faced losses in his previous two matches against Leandro Riedi and Arthur Fils. This inconsistency may affect his confidence heading into the match against Baez.

Final Prediction

Sebastian Baez is predicted to have the edge due to his superior rankings, form, and performance metrics, particularly on hard courts. A key factor to monitor will be Baez's serving effectiveness, as his higher mean serve index and lower fatigue levels could influence the match dynamics significantly.

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