Delray Beach FL, U.S.A. Hard Atp 250 Semifinals

Flavio Cobolli vs Sebastian Korda: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Flavio Cobolli

Rank: #20
50%
VS

Sebastian Korda

Rank: #53
50%
Expected Total Games: 23.7
Predicted Winner: Sebastian Korda

Ranking Trends

Flavio Cobolli

  • Current Rank: #20 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #22 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #26 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #35 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #40 (2025-02-17)

Sebastian Korda

  • Current Rank: #53 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #48 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #86 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #23 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #22 (2025-02-17)

Player Metrics

Flavio Cobolli

Form Index: 37.1
ELO Rating: 1607.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1644.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 235.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.0
Clay: 15.4
Grass: 16.1
Serve Rating: 63.3
Return Rating: 54.1

Sebastian Korda

Form Index: 60.2
ELO Rating: 1197.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1710.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 320.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.8
Clay: 10.4
Grass: 9.5
Serve Rating: 98.2
Return Rating: 87.8

Recent Matches

Flavio Cobolli
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Coleman Wong (2-1) hard Delray Beach 134 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Terence Atmane (2-0) hard Delray Beach 101 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Jack Pinnington Jones (0-2) hard Dallas 53 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Luca Nardi (0-2) hard Montpellier 74 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Fery (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min

Sebastian Korda
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Casper Ruud (2-1) hard Delray Beach 126 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alex Michelsen (2-0) hard Delray Beach 106 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Mackenzie McDonald (2-0) hard Delray Beach 88 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Taylor Fritz (1-2) hard Dallas 149 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Frances Tiafoe (2-0) hard Dallas 68 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Flavio Cobolli
vs
0
Sebastian Korda
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This semifinal in Delray Beach, FL is on hard court at a 250-level event. The model gives Sebastian Korda the narrow edge: Korda 50.01% to Flavio Cobolli 49.99%, with a predicted total of 23.73 games — a tight, likely straight-sets contest with few lapses.

Match Analysis

Cobolli comes in as the higher-ranked player (No. 20) with a stronger Elo (1607.09) but a lower form index (37.11) than Korda (rank 53, Elo 1196.998, form 60.20). Fatigue is a factor: Cobolli has accumulated 235 minutes this week versus Korda’s 320, which may influence late-match physicality. Surface strength indices are low for both (Cobolli 6.95, Korda 9.85), but Korda’s numbers on serve and return are markedly higher. The mean serve index gap (~34.9 points) and the mean return index gap (~33.8 points) both exceed 5 points, indicating Korda has a clear advantage in both serving potency and return capability. Recent form favors Korda — he’s unbeaten in three Delray Beach matches this week (wins over Ruud, Michelsen and McDonald) with match times of 88–126 minutes. Cobolli has won two matches here (against Wong and Atmane) but also carries a recent loss in Dallas; his wins included a long 134-minute match. The contrast is Korda’s consistent string of victories and higher form index versus Cobolli’s better ranking and Elo but lower recent form and slightly less court time this week.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.7 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 15.91 total and the double faults prediction is 5.94 total. On a medium-paced hard court, predicted aces are moderate — the surface tends to balance serve advantages and return opportunities. Because Korda’s mean serve index is substantially higher, he is likely to drive a larger share of the predicted aces, which in turn can affect return games; expected double faults remain modest but could come from aggressive serving under fatigue.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.9 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Korda’s superior form and large serve/return indices are the decisive edges in a very close projection. The key factor to watch is serve effectiveness versus return pressure — Korda’s serving bounce and Cobolli’s ability to break that rhythm will determine the outcome.

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