Delray Beach FL, U.S.A. Hard Atp 250 Finals

Tommy Paul vs Sebastian Korda: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Tommy Paul

Rank: #24
56%
VS

Sebastian Korda

Rank: #53
44%
Expected Total Games: 24.4
Predicted Winner: Tommy Paul

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Ranking Trends

Tommy Paul

  • Current #24 2026-02-09
  • 3 mo ago #20 2025-11-17
  • 6 mo ago #14 2025-08-18
  • 9 mo ago #12 2025-05-19
  • 12 mo ago #9 2025-02-17

Sebastian Korda

  • Current #53 2026-02-09
  • 3 mo ago #48 2025-11-17
  • 6 mo ago #86 2025-08-18
  • 9 mo ago #23 2025-05-19
  • 12 mo ago #22 2025-02-17

Player Metrics

Tommy Paul

Form Index: 58.6
ELO Rating: 1988.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1819.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 457.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.0
Clay: 17.2
Grass: 15.2
Serve Rating: 61.2
Return Rating: 53.8

Sebastian Korda

Form Index: 63.2
ELO Rating: 1254.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1715.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 396.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.0
Clay: 10.4
Grass: 9.5
Serve Rating: 98.2
Return Rating: 87.4

Recent Matches

Tommy Paul
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Learner Tien (2-1) hard Delray Beach 134 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Taylor Fritz (2-0) hard Delray Beach 76 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Adam Walton (2-0) hard Delray Beach 97 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Corentin Moutet (2-1) hard Delray Beach 150 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Miomir Kecmanovic (1-2) hard Dallas 120 min

Sebastian Korda
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tommy Paul
vs
0
Sebastian Korda
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The final in Delray Beach, FL (hard court, atp_250) pits Tommy Paul against Sebastian Korda for the 2026 title. The model favours Tommy Paul to win with a 55.95% probability against Korda’s 44.05%, and projects a relatively short match of about 24.37 total games.

Match Analysis

Tommy Paul arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 24) with a substantially higher Elo (1988.09) and a solid form index of 58.57. He carries 457 minutes of cumulative fatigue in the event and posts a modest surface strength index (13.97). Sebastian Korda, ranked 53 with a slightly stronger recent form index (63.18), shows markedly different profile numbers: his mean serve index (98.16) and mean return index (87.37) are both far higher than Paul’s (serve 61.24, return 53.79), differences well over 5 points and pointing to Korda’s edge on both serve potency and returning metrics. Korda’s tournament fatigue is lower at 396 minutes, while his surface strength index is 9.99. Both players have won three matches to reach the final. Paul defeated Adam Walton and Taylor Fritz in straight sets and needed three sets to get past Learner Tien (last match 134 minutes). Korda’s path included straight-set wins over Alex Michelsen and Flavio Cobolli and a three-set victory against Casper Ruud (126 minutes). Overall match-time totals are comparable, and each player has shown consistent form through the draw.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.4 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Tommy Paul - Sebastian Korda) +6.5 Most likely spread: +8 (Tommy Paul wins 8 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 8.89 total, with an expected double faults total of 6.37. On hard courts (a medium-paced surface with consistent bounce) these predicted aces and expected double faults sit in a moderate range. Given Korda’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to inflate the predicted aces figure and be a primary source of service winners, while double faults could come from both players under pressure.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.9 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Paul’s higher ranking and much stronger Elo rating give him the narrow edge in this final despite Korda’s superior serving and returning indices. The key factor to watch is Korda’s serve — if his high serve index converts to free points, it can swing the match; if Paul neutralizes that strength, his overall rating advantage should carry him through.

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