Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Arthur Fils: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Fils comes mainly from his superior overall strength and recent form. Overall strength contributes 6.1 percentage points toward Fils, and recent form adds a further 5.3 points. Those factors align with Fils being ranked 11 with an Elo of 2044.08 and a form index of 52.51. Tsitsipas is ranked 53, has an Elo of 1718.52 and a lower form index of 42.85. Both players arrive with no tournament fatigue recorded. Recent record by level also supports Fils, adding 5.0 points to his probability, and the serve and return game adds 2.8 points in his favor. Surface strength favors Fils as well, with a surface strength index of 53.16 versus Tsitsipas at 25.26. Both players show very similar serve and return mean indexes (serve: Tsitsipas 96.85, Fils 96.43; return: Tsitsipas 87.67, Fils 87.76), so there is no large gap in single-match serving or returning ability on paper. Form over the last three matches diverges sharply. Fils is on a three-match winning run in Cincinnati on hard courts, beating Frances Tiafoe, Flavio Cobolli, and Thiago Tirante. Tsitsipas has been more inconsistent, with a recent win over Jenson Brooksby but losses to Felix Auger-Aliassime and Aleksandar Kovacevic on hard courts. Those recent results feed into the model’s favoring of Fils here.