Almaty Kazakhstan Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Mikhail Kukushkin Prediction

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Rank: #39
91%
VS

Mikhail Kukushkin

Rank: #389
9%
Expected Total Games: 21.8
Predicted Winner: Stefanos Tsitsipas

Why the Model Favors Stefanos Tsitsipas

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +10.2 Stefanos Tsitsipas
Serve & return game +8.4 Stefanos Tsitsipas
Overall strength +7.5 Stefanos Tsitsipas
Recent form +5.0 Stefanos Tsitsipas
Surface fit +4.8 Stefanos Tsitsipas

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 91% for Stefanos Tsitsipas. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Stefanos Tsitsipas

  • Current #39 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #51 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #80 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #35 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #25 2025-10-20

Mikhail Kukushkin

  • Current #389 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #317 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #282 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #262 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #295 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Form Index: 61.9
ELO Rating: 1859.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1792.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 119.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 39.2
Clay: 28.1
Grass: 13.7
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 87.7

Mikhail Kukushkin

Form Index: 29.5
ELO Rating: 1503.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1477.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 132.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.2
Clay: 8.1
Grass: 3.6
Serve Rating: 94.4
Return Rating: 87.6

Recent Matches

Stefanos Tsitsipas
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Mikhail Kukushkin
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Stefanos Tsitsipas
vs
0
Mikhail Kukushkin
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Stefanos Tsitsipas is a heavy favourite in the Almaty Round of 16, with the forecast giving him a 91% chance of victory against Mikhail Kukushkin’s 9%. It projects 21.8 games on the hard court.

Match Analysis

The biggest separation is in their results at this level and overall strength. Tsitsipas is ranked 39th, compared with Kukushkin at 389th, and has won two of his last three matches, including a hard-court victory over Aleksandar Kovacevic in Almaty. Their return games look similar, but Tsitsipas has the stronger serve and a better fit on hard courts. Kukushkin arrives after a straight-set win over Stefanos Sakellaridis, though that result does not erase the wider gap in recent form and playing strength.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 21.8 Most likely outcome: 20 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Stefanos Tsitsipas - Mikhail Kukushkin) +5.2 Most likely spread: +6 (Stefanos Tsitsipas wins 6 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Tsitsipas is projected to hit 8.8 aces and 2.1 double faults, while Kukushkin is projected for 2.9 aces and 1.7 double faults. Tsitsipas’s stronger serve is the clearest reason for the expected ace gap, while their projected double-fault totals are relatively close.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.5 Most likely: 9 aces Per player: Stefanos Tsitsipas 8.8 + Mikhail Kukushkin 2.9
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.8 Most likely: 2 double faults Per player: Stefanos Tsitsipas 2.1 + Mikhail Kukushkin 1.7

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Expected 8.8 aces

Mikhail Kukushkin

Expected 2.9 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Expected 2.1 double faults

Mikhail Kukushkin

Expected 1.7 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

30.5% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Stefanos Tsitsipas's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (72.0%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Kukushkin’s return is close to Tsitsipas’s, giving him a way to put pressure on the favourite’s service games. If he can turn that into sustained return pressure, he could make the forecast less one-sided.

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