Wimbledon Great Britain Grass Grand Slam Semifinals

Taylor Fritz vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction

Taylor Fritz

Rank: #5
32%
VS

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #2
68%
Predicted Games Played: 36.0
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

Player Metrics

Taylor Fritz

Form Index: 94.2
ELO Rating: 4317.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1811.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 870.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 34.3
Clay: 37.4
Grass: 44.7
Serve Rating: 98.6
Return Rating: 86.3

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 95.7
ELO Rating: 6661.2
Glicko2 Rating: 2364.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 870.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 54.6
Clay: 60.8
Grass: 58.9
Serve Rating: 94.6
Return Rating: 87.4

Recent Matches

Taylor Fritz

  • Last Match: vs Karen Khachanov (3-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Jordan Thompson (2-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (3-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Gabriel Diallo (3-2) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (3-2) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Last Match: vs Cameron Norrie (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Andrey Rublev (3-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Jan-Lennard Struff (3-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Oliver Tarvet (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Fabio Fognini (3-2) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Taylor Fritz
vs
0
Carlos Alcaraz
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The semifinal match between Taylor Fritz and Carlos Alcaraz at the 2025 Wimbledon promises to be a thrilling encounter on grass. With Alcaraz ranked 2nd and Fritz ranked 5th, the match is set to showcase some of the best talent in the sport. Alcaraz is predicted to win with a probability of 68.35%, while Fritz’s chances stand at 31.65%. The expected total number of games played is 36.

Match Analysis

Carlos Alcaraz boasts a higher Elo rating of 6661.20 compared to Taylor Fritz's 4317.77, reflecting his recent success and consistency at the top level. Alcaraz's form index stands at 95.72, slightly ahead of Fritz’s 94.20, indicating both players are in excellent form. However, Alcaraz possesses a notable advantage in surface strength with a score of 58.91 compared to Fritz's 44.73. This difference suggests that Alcaraz is more adept at handling the grass surface, crucial for performance at Wimbledon. Additionally, Alcaraz's mean serve index of 94.55 is within 5 points of Fritz's 98.61, emphasizing the competitiveness in their serve capabilities. However, Fritz's mean return index of 86.27 falls short of Alcaraz's 87.42, indicating a slight edge for Alcaraz in return games. In their recent performances, both players have shown strong form, winning their last three matches at Wimbledon. Fritz's victories included a challenging match against Karen Khachanov, where he won in four sets. On the other hand, Alcaraz has been dominant, winning all his recent matches without dropping a set against opponents like Cameron Norrie and Andrey Rublev. This trend of consistent results adds to Alcaraz's confidence heading into the semifinal.

Final Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz appears to have the upper hand due to his superior ranking, recent performance, and better adaptation to the grass surface. A key factor to watch will be Alcaraz's serving capability, as his ability to win service games could dictate the overall flow of the match.