Marseille France Hard Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Daniel Altmaier vs Taylor Fritz Prediction

Daniel Altmaier

Rank: #65
24%
VS

Taylor Fritz

Rank: #14
76%
Expected Total Games: 24.6
Predicted Winner: Taylor Fritz

Why the Model Favors Taylor Fritz

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +8.4 Taylor Fritz
Overall strength +6.4 Taylor Fritz
Serve & return game +4.5 Taylor Fritz
Overall record & opposition quality +2.9 Taylor Fritz
Recent form +2.8 Taylor Fritz

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 76% for Taylor Fritz. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Daniel Altmaier

  • Current #65 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #61 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #55 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #44 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #51 2025-10-20

Taylor Fritz

  • Current #14 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #10 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #7 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #9 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #4 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Daniel Altmaier

Form Index: 44.8
ELO Rating: 1612.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1638.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 253.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 17.7
Clay: 20.0
Grass: 10.1
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 87.1

Taylor Fritz

Form Index: 40.8
ELO Rating: 1827.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1893.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 94.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 35.5
Clay: 21.6
Grass: 46.7
Serve Rating: 97.5
Return Rating: 86.4

Recent Matches

Daniel Altmaier
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Borna Gojo (2-0) hard Marseille 81 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Titouan Droguet (2-1) hard Marseille 172 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Ben Shelton (0-2) hard Shanghai 117 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Holger Rune (2-1) hard Shanghai 135 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jie Cui (0-2) hard Beijing 77 min

Taylor Fritz
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Daniel Altmaier
vs
0
Taylor Fritz
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Taylor Fritz is favoured in this Quarterfinals, with a 76% win probability against Daniel Altmaier’s 24%. The match is projected to last 24.6 games. Fritz’s stronger overall record and ranking make him a clear favourite in Marseille.

Match Analysis

Fritz is ranked 14th, compared with Altmaier at 65th, and has been the stronger hard-court player. His more potent serve is a useful advantage, though Altmaier’s return is a relative strength and could help him disrupt Fritz’s service rhythm. Altmaier has won both of his Marseille matches, against Titouan Droguet and Borna Gojo, but his second-round match took 172 minutes. Fritz beat Pierre-Hugues Herbert in straight sets in his opener and has spent 94 minutes on court this tournament, compared with Altmaier’s 253. Fritz’s workload is lighter, while his broader results against higher-level opposition support the forecast.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.6 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Daniel Altmaier - Taylor Fritz) -4.0 Most likely spread: -5 (Taylor Fritz wins 5 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Fritz is projected to hit 11.3 aces and Altmaier 7.3, with Fritz’s stronger serve giving him the advantage on hard court. Altmaier is expected to make 2.3 double faults and Fritz 1.8.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 17.2 Most likely: 16 aces Per player: Daniel Altmaier 7.3 + Taylor Fritz 11.2
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.1 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Daniel Altmaier 2.3 + Taylor Fritz 1.8

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Daniel Altmaier

Expected 7.3 aces

Taylor Fritz

Expected 11.2 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Daniel Altmaier

Expected 2.3 double faults

Taylor Fritz

Expected 1.8 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

51.5% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Daniel Altmaier's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (51.5%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Altmaier’s best chance is to make his return a factor and keep Fritz from earning easy points behind his serve. If he cannot do that, Fritz’s serve and lighter workload should tell.

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