Taylor Fritz vs Tommy Paul: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Fritz arrives with a higher rank (7), a substantially stronger Elo (3781.37) and a slightly lower cumulative fatigue (106 minutes) than Paul, whose fatigue is 247 minutes. Fritz’s surface strength index (21.65) is modestly better than Paul’s (15.24). Form indices are nearly identical (Fritz 61.76, Paul 62.43), so recent match rhythm is comparable despite the gap in court time. Serve and return profiles show notable contrasts: Paul’s mean serve index (96.38) is more than 11 points higher than Fritz’s (84.94), while Paul’s mean return index (90.13) far exceeds Fritz’s (41.45). Those differences suggest Paul can both serve big and pressure opponents’ serves, but the heavy workload in this event may blunt that edge. Over their last three matches each, Fritz is 2-1 (wins over Rafael Jodar and Marin Cilic; loss to Ben Shelton) with match times averaging long rallies, while Paul is also 2-1 (wins vs. Adam Walton and Corentin Moutet; loss to Miomir Kecmanovic) including a marathon 150-minute contest. The combination of Fritz’s superior Elo and lower in-tournament fatigue partly explains the model’s tilt toward him.