Stockholm Sweden Hard Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Aleksandr Shevchenko Prediction

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Rank: #53
61%
VS

Aleksandr Shevchenko

Rank: #108
39%
Expected Total Games: 23.8
Predicted Winner: Thiago Agustin Tirante

Why the Model Favors Thiago Agustin Tirante

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +11.6 Thiago Agustin Tirante
Recent form +7.1 Aleksandr Shevchenko
Surface fit +3.1 Thiago Agustin Tirante
Recent record by level +2.6 Thiago Agustin Tirante
Fatigue & recent workload +1.8 Thiago Agustin Tirante

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 61% for Thiago Agustin Tirante. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Thiago Agustin Tirante

  • Current #53 2026-11-02
  • 3 mo ago #50 2026-08-10
  • 6 mo ago #69 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #92 2026-02-09
  • 12 mo ago #98 2025-11-10

Aleksandr Shevchenko

  • Current #108 2026-11-02
  • 3 mo ago #89 2026-08-10
  • 6 mo ago #85 2026-05-04

Player Metrics

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Form Index: 31.3
ELO Rating: 1673.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1743.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 104.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 22.5
Clay: 28.7
Grass: 6.2
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 88.2

Aleksandr Shevchenko

Form Index: 46.3
ELO Rating: 1557.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1609.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 337.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.9
Clay: 11.1
Grass: 2.2
Serve Rating: 95.7
Return Rating: 84.5

Recent Matches

Thiago Agustin Tirante
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Aleksandr Shevchenko
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Casper Ruud (2-1) hard Stockholm 137 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Adrian Mannarino (2-0) hard Stockholm 69 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Jacob Fearnley (2-0) hard Stockholm 74 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Viktor Durasovic (2-0) hard Stockholm 57 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Stefanos Sakellaridis (0-2) hard Almaty 85 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Thiago Agustin Tirante
vs
0
Aleksandr Shevchenko
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Tirante is favoured at 61% to Shevchenko’s 39%, with 23.8 games projected for this Stockholm quarterfinal. The forecast gives Tirante a clear, though not decisive, advantage.

Match Analysis

Tirante’s higher ranking and stronger all-round profile underpin his advantage. He also looks the better fit for hard courts and has the stronger return, which could help him put pressure on Shevchenko’s service games. Shevchenko arrives with the better recent run, having won three straight in Stockholm, including a victory over Casper Ruud. Tirante’s latest result was a straight-sets win over Jaume Munar, but Shevchenko has spent 337 minutes on court this tournament compared with Tirante’s 104, a substantial workload gap.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.8 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Thiago Agustin Tirante - Aleksandr Shevchenko) +0.8 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Tirante is projected to hit 9.9 aces and Shevchenko 6.8, with both expected to make about 2.3 double faults. Their serve profiles are close, though Tirante has a slight advantage, supporting the higher ace estimate on hard court.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.9 Most likely: 14 aces Per player: Thiago Agustin Tirante 9.9 + Aleksandr Shevchenko 6.8
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Thiago Agustin Tirante 2.3 + Aleksandr Shevchenko 2.3

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Expected 9.9 aces

Aleksandr Shevchenko

Expected 6.8 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Expected 2.3 double faults

Aleksandr Shevchenko

Expected 2.3 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

46.0% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Thiago Agustin Tirante's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (34.3%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Shevchenko’s three-match winning streak is the main threat to the forecast, especially after his win over Ruud. If his form carries through despite the extra time on court, he can make Tirante’s ranking and return advantage count for less.

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