Novak Djokovic vs Thiago Agustin Tirante: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Djokovic comes mainly from surface fit and overall strength. Surface fit contributes about 10.6 percentage points toward Djokovic, supported by his surface strength index of 56.97 versus Tirante’s 26.73. Overall strength adds another 8.6 points for Djokovic, reflected in his Elo of 2068.14 and world rank of 5, compared with Tirante’s Elo of 1759.28 and rank 65. Djokovic arrives with no tournament fatigue, while Tirante carries 176 minutes on court from earlier rounds, which the model factors implicitly through overall strength and recent workload. Age is one factor working against Djokovic in the model, adding 6.3 percentage points toward Tirante, which reflects a younger player advantage in the engine’s weighting. Serve and return dynamics give a slight nod to Tirante in the model, adding 3.8 points to his chance, though the raw indices are very similar. Djokovic’s mean serve index is 97.10 and Tirante’s is 96.02, so there is no large serve rating gap. Djokovic’s mean return index at 90.57 is higher than Tirante’s 87.29, but the difference is under the threshold where we would highlight it as a major split. Recent form shows Djokovic at 1 win and 1 loss across the last three listed matches, with a straight sets loss to Jannik Sinner followed by wins over Felix Auger-Aliassime and Roman Safiullin. Tirante has two wins and one loss in his last three, including a 2-1 win over Jan Choinski at Cincinnati and a 2-0 win over Alexei Popyrin in Toronto.