Madrid Spain Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Tomas Machac vs Francisco Comesana: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Tomas Machac

Rank: #41
62%
VS

Francisco Comesana

Rank: #105
38%
Expected Total Games: 23.5
Predicted Winner: Tomas Machac

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Ranking Trends

Tomas Machac

  • Current #41 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #24 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #31 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #22 2025-07-21
  • 12 mo ago #20 2025-04-21

Francisco Comesana

  • Current #105 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #68 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #64 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #73 2025-07-21
  • 12 mo ago #70 2025-04-21

Player Metrics

Tomas Machac

Form Index: 56.8
ELO Rating: 1748.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1818.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 58.6
Clay: 41.3
Grass: 42.4
Serve Rating: 61.4
Return Rating: 65.4

Francisco Comesana

Form Index: 46.8
ELO Rating: 1556.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1527.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 52.3
Clay: 40.5
Grass: 40.0
Serve Rating: 97.9
Return Rating: 91.5

Recent Matches

Tomas Machac
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Francisco Comesana
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Flavio Cobolli (1-2) clay Monte Carlo 150 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Ethan Quinn (2-0) clay Monte Carlo 101 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Romain Arneodo (2-0) clay Monte Carlo 62 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Tabilo (0-2) hard Miami 77 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Korda (0-2) hard Indian Wells 78 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tomas Machac
vs
0
Francisco Comesana
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Madrid, clay, Round of 128 at a Masters 1000 event sets a demanding stage for Tomas Machac vs Francisco Comesana. The model favors Machac to advance (62.16% chance) over Comesana (37.84%), with a predicted total of 23.52 games—suggesting a straight-sets affair with moderately competitive scorelines.

Match Analysis

Machac arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 41) with a stronger Elo (1748.6) and a better form index (56.8) than Comesana (rank 105, Elo 1556.8, form 46.8). Both players show nearly identical surface strength on clay (Machac 41.29, Comesana 40.46) and neither carries tournament fatigue into this match. Notably, Comesana posts a much higher mean serve index (97.87) than Machac (61.35)—a difference well above 5 points—and also a substantially higher mean return index (91.51 vs 65.41), which the preview flags as material to match dynamics. Recent results reinforce those numbers: Machac’s last three clay outings include a win over Sebastián Báez (2-1) and losses to Jannik Sinner and Andrey Rublev, showing he can pressure top opponents but has struggled at the highest level. Comesana has been busy in clay events too, following two straight wins (Arneodo, Quinn) with a tight three-set loss to Flavio Cobolli; his matches include longer baseline battles and a recent 150-minute contest, indicating stamina in extended rallies.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.5 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Tomas Machac - Francisco Comesana) +1.9 Most likely spread: +2 (Tomas Machac wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay match sits at 16.73 total; the predicted aces skew higher because Comesana’s mean serve index is markedly superior and should raise the match’s ace potential despite the surface. For double faults prediction, expected double faults are 6.69—clay’s slower pace and longer points can increase pressure serving across extended rallies. Given Comesana’s high serve rating, he is likely to contribute a larger share of the predicted aces, while both players could be vulnerable to sporadic double faults as rallies lengthen.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.7 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.7 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Machac’s edge comes from higher ranking, better Elo and current form, plus a capable return profile that can blunt Comesana’s heavy-serving metrics on clay. Key factor to watch: whether Machac can neutralize Comesana’s serve early—breaking serve will likely decide the match.

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