Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 64

Learner Tien vs Tomas Machac Prediction

Learner Tien

Rank: #70
32%
VS

Tomas Machac

Rank: #20
68%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Tomas Machac

Player Metrics

Learner Tien

Form Index: 40.2
ELO Rating: 947.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1562.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 108.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.5
Clay: 4.7
Grass: 4.2
Serve Rating: 95.8
Return Rating: 90.0

Tomas Machac

Form Index: 37.2
ELO Rating: 1558.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1600.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 16.0
Clay: 16.6
Grass: 15.3
Serve Rating: 95.7
Return Rating: 87.1

Recent Matches

Learner Tien

  • Last Match: vs Reilly Opelka (2-0) clay Rome 108 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Marcos Giron (1-2) clay Madrid 127 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Tallon Griekspoor (0-2) clay Munich 71 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Botic van de Zandschulp (2-0) clay Munich 76 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Henri Squire (2-1) clay Munich 102 min

Tomas Machac

  • Last Match: vs Jacob Fearnley (1-2) clay Madrid 104 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Alex de Minaur (1-2) clay Monte Carlo 108 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Sebastian Baez (2-1) clay Monte Carlo 114 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Reilly Opelka (2-0) hard Miami 74 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Matteo Arnaldi (2-1) hard Miami 104 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Learner Tien
vs
1
Tomas Machac
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 64 at the Masters 1000 tournament in Rome, Learner Tien faces off against Tomas Machac on clay. With a predicted win probability of 67.88% for Machac compared to 32.12% for Tien, the match is expected to be competitive, with a predicted total of 23 games played.

Match Analysis

Tomas Machac, currently ranked 20th, boasts a significantly higher Elo rating of 1558.26 compared to Learner Tien's 947.25 and has a surface strength index of 16.61, indicating his proficiency on clay. In contrast, Tien, ranked 70th, has a form index of 40.22 and a lower surface strength index of 4.65. Machac enters the match with zero cumulative fatigue, while Tien has already spent 108 minutes on court in this tournament, which could impact his performance. The difference in their mean serve indices is marginal, with Tien at 95.83 and Machac at 95.67, suggesting both players are capable servers. However, Tien's mean return index of 90.03 surpasses Machac's 87.11 by a notable margin, indicating Tien can challenge Machac's serve effectively. In their recent performances, Tien has shown a mixed bag of results, securing a win against Reilly Opelka but losing to Marcos Giron and Tallon Griekspoor. Machac, on the other hand, has struggled recently, losing to Jacob Fearnley and Alex de Minaur, but he did secure a victory against Sebastian Baez. Both players have faced tough competition, but Tien's recent win could provide him some momentum, albeit against a higher-ranked opponent in Machac.

Final Prediction

Tomas Machac's higher rank, Elo rating, and lower fatigue level give him a distinct advantage heading into this match. A crucial factor to watch will be how Tien's serve and return game holds up against Machac's overall ability to compete on clay, especially considering the match's potential for extended rallies.