Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Tomas Machac vs Zizou Bergs: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Tomas Machac

Rank: #40
51%
VS

Zizou Bergs

Rank: #38
49%
Expected Total Games: 40.6
Predicted Winner: Tomas Machac

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Ranking Trends

Tomas Machac

  • Current #40 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #32 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #32 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #22 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #22 2025-05-26

Zizou Bergs

  • Current #38 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #46 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #43 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #48 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #50 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Tomas Machac

Form Index: 42.3
ELO Rating: 1754.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1814.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 31.7
Clay: 22.2
Grass: 16.0
Serve Rating: 94.8
Return Rating: 91.4

Zizou Bergs

Form Index: 31.0
ELO Rating: 1579.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1592.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 21.9
Clay: 10.6
Grass: 10.9
Serve Rating: 95.7
Return Rating: 88.7

Recent Matches

Tomas Machac
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Zizou Bergs
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Terence Atmane (0-2) clay Rome 83 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Marin Cilic (1-2) clay Madrid 127 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Flavio Cobolli (0-2) clay Munich 73 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Marko Topo (2-0) clay Munich 69 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 111 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tomas Machac
vs
0
Zizou Bergs
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Roland Garros, Paris — Round of 128 on clay, grand slam setting. This projects as a tight opener between Tomas Machac and Zizou Bergs, with Machac narrowly favoured: predicted winner Tomas Machac 51.49% vs Zizou Bergs 48.51%. The model anticipates a relatively short clay contest with an expected total of about 40.63 games.

Match Analysis

Machac arrives ranked 40 with an Elo of 1754.88 and a form index of 42.26; his surface strength index is 22.24 and fatigue is 0.0 minutes, indicating freshness for the match. He posts a strong mean serve index of 94.83 and an excellent mean return index of 91.36 — the return number is a notable weapon on slow surfaces. Recent form shows two wins in his last three: victories in Rome and Madrid qualifying rounds and a three-set loss to Cameron Norrie in Madrid. Bergs is ranked 38 with an Elo of 1579.45 and a lower form index of 30.99; his surface strength index sits at 10.59 with fatigue also at 0.0. His mean serve index (95.68) is marginally higher than Machac’s, while his mean return index (88.71) trails slightly. Bergs arrives on the back of three straight defeats on clay (Rome, Madrid, Munich), a trend that helps explain the tighter-than-expected edge for Machac despite similar serving metrics.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 40.6 Most likely outcome: 40 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Tomas Machac - Zizou Bergs) -0.1 Most likely spread: -1 (Zizou Bergs wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction calls for about 14.06 total aces in the match and the predicted aces figure should be tempered by clay’s slower, high-bouncing nature which generally reduces outright winners from the serve. The expected double faults are 8.87; long rallies and the physical demands of clay often translate into more unforced errors and a higher double faults prediction. Neither player holds a significantly higher serve rating, so the ace count will likely be split rather than dominated by one server.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.1 Most likely: 14 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 8.9 Most likely: 8 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

39.9% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Tomas Machac's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (23.4%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Machac’s edge comes from a higher Elo, better recent results and a stronger return profile on clay, which should allow him to pressure Bergs’ service games. Key factor to watch: Machac’s ability to convert return opportunities early — that will likely decide whether this tight encounter swings his way.

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