Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Arthur Fery: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Rank: #61
55%
VS

Arthur Fery

Rank: #185
45%
Expected Total Games: 38.4
Predicted Winner: Tomas Martin Etcheverry

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Player Metrics

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Form Index: 57.2
ELO Rating: 944.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1631.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.8
Clay: 8.0
Grass: 6.3
Serve Rating: 77.4
Return Rating: 66.5

Arthur Fery

Form Index: 95.7
ELO Rating: 521.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1520.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 16.9
Clay: 7.8
Grass: 11.1
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 93.5

Recent Matches

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Arthur Fery

  • Last Match: vs Flavio Cobolli (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Dino Prizmic (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Bernard Tomic (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Lorenzo Sonego (0-2) hard Stockholm 96 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Jay Clarke (2-1) hard Stockholm 152 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
vs
0
Arthur Fery
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Tomas Martin Etcheverry and Arthur Fery at the 2026 Australian Open marks an intriguing contest in the round of 64 on hard courts. Based on current statistics, Tomas Martin Etcheverry is slightly favored to win, with a probability of 55.36%, while Arthur Fery holds a 44.64% chance. The predicted total number of games in this matchup is approximately 38.36.

Match Analysis

Tomas Martin Etcheverry is currently ranked 61st and has a form index of 57.24, alongside an Elo rating of 944.06. He faces some fatigue with 174 cumulative minutes spent on court during this tournament. His surface strength index is 6.82, indicating a moderate performance level on hard courts. Notably, Etcheverry’s mean serve index is 77.35, which could be a crucial factor in this match. On the other hand, Arthur Fery, ranked 185th, boasts an impressive form index of 95.71 and a significantly lower Elo rating of 521.87. However, he has accumulated more fatigue, totaling 522 minutes on court in this tournament, which may impact his stamina. Fery shines with a mean serve index of 95.46 and a mean return index of 93.53, both of which exceed Etcheverry’s by a considerable margin, particularly in serving effectiveness. Both players have recently shown contrasting performances. Etcheverry's last three matches include one victory against Miomir Kecmanovic and two losses against Nuno Borges and Lorenzo Musetti, indicating a mixed form. Conversely, Fery has been on a winning streak, claiming victories in all three of his last matches, including decisive wins against Flavio Cobolli and Dino Prizmic.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 38.4 Most likely outcome: 38 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Tomas Martin Etcheverry versus Arthur Fery. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Tomas Martin Etcheverry versus Arthur Fery. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Arthur Fery) -0.6 Most likely spread: -1 (Arthur Fery wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Tomas Martin Etcheverry versus Arthur Fery. Positive values indicate Tomas Martin Etcheverry winning more games, negative values indicate Arthur Fery winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Tomas Martin Etcheverry versus Arthur Fery. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The expected aces in this match stand at approximately 10.95, while the predicted double faults are around 5.02. Given the hard court surface, which balances serve and return capabilities, these predictions align with the expectation of a moderate number of aces. Fery's superior mean serve index suggests he may lead the ace count, while both players' expected double faults indicate potential challenges with consistency.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.9 Most likely: 10 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.0 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Tomas Martin Etcheverry versus Arthur Fery. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Tomas Martin Etcheverry versus Arthur Fery. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Tomas Martin Etcheverry versus Arthur Fery. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Tomas Martin Etcheverry versus Arthur Fery. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Tomas Martin Etcheverry's slight edge in the matchup stems from his overall ranking and experience, despite Fery's recent form and serving prowess. A key factor to monitor during the match will be how both players manage their fatigue levels, particularly Fery, as he faces a more demanding cumulative workload.

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