Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Paul stems primarily from his serve-and-return package and recent head-to-head context. Serve & return game is the largest single driver (adding 6.9 percentage points toward Paul): Paul posts very high mean serve (96.81) and mean return (96.22) indices, while Davidovich’s return index is noticeably lower (88.57), a gap greater than five points that favors Paul in short-exchange grass rallies. Head-to-head considerations also push toward Paul (+5.5 points), and overall strength measures (Elo and form) further support him. Comparing the two players on paper: Paul is ranked 28 with an Elo of 1833 and a form index of 53.8; Davidovich is ranked 22 with an Elo of 1697 and a form index of 42.0. Fatigue is nearly identical—Paul 186 minutes vs Davidovich 189 minutes in-court this week—so recent workload should not be decisive. Surface strength index actually favors Davidovich (30.0 vs Paul’s 19.5), but the model still credits Paul for surface fit (+3.5 toward Paul), largely because his current grass results and his high serve/return performance have translated into wins here. Recent form: Paul arrives on the back of two straight grass wins in London (vs. van de Zandschulp and Svajda) after a five-set loss at Roland Garros; Davidovich has also won his two London matches (Moutet, Norrie) following a loss in Stuttgart.