Delray Beach FL, U.S.A. Hard Atp 250 Semifinals

Tommy Paul vs Learner Tien: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Tommy Paul

Rank: #24
58%
VS

Learner Tien

Rank: #23
42%
Expected Total Games: 23.4
Predicted Winner: Tommy Paul

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Ranking Trends

Tommy Paul

  • Current #24 2026-02-09
  • 3 mo ago #20 2025-11-17
  • 6 mo ago #14 2025-08-18
  • 9 mo ago #12 2025-05-19
  • 12 mo ago #9 2025-02-17

Learner Tien

  • Current #23 2026-02-09
  • 3 mo ago #28 2025-11-17
  • 6 mo ago #48 2025-08-18
  • 9 mo ago #67 2025-05-19
  • 12 mo ago #80 2025-02-17

Player Metrics

Tommy Paul

Form Index: 56.8
ELO Rating: 1984.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1817.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 323.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.9
Clay: 17.2
Grass: 15.2
Serve Rating: 60.5
Return Rating: 53.6

Learner Tien

Form Index: 59.9
ELO Rating: 1585.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1583.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 274.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.3
Clay: 11.7
Grass: 11.9
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 90.6

Recent Matches

Tommy Paul
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Learner Tien
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tommy Paul
vs
0
Learner Tien
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This semifinal in Delray Beach, FL is a 250-level hard-court match between Tommy Paul and Learner Tien. The model projects Tommy Paul as the winner (57.83% vs 42.17%) with an expected total of about 23.4 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Paul enters with a higher Elo (1984.32) despite being ranked 24 versus Tien’s 23; his form index is 56.84 compared with Tien’s 59.91. Cumulative fatigue favors Tien (274 minutes) over Paul (323 minutes), while both show similar surface strength (Paul 13.88, Tien 14.27). There is a large gap in serve and return profiles: Tien’s mean serve index (96.87) exceeds Paul’s (60.54) by more than 30 points, and his mean return index (90.65) is likewise well above Paul’s (53.62), a difference that will shape how service games play out. Recent results show Paul unbeaten through three matches at this event, including straight-set wins over Taylor Fritz and Adam Walton and a three-seter against Corentin Moutet; his match durations (76, 97, 150 minutes) indicate he has been tested but consistently advanced. Tien has also been strong in Delray Beach, beating Frances Tiafoe and Miomir Kecmanovic in tight matches (both three-set affairs) after a loss to Marin Cilic in Dallas; his recent wins came in longer encounters (135–139 minutes), suggesting resilience in extended matches.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.4 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Tommy Paul - Learner Tien) +0.3 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match sits at roughly 16.86 predicted aces, with an expected double faults figure near 5.74. On a medium-paced hard court, that ace total is plausible: the surface encourages a moderate number of service winners while still rewarding returns. Given Tien’s significantly higher serve index, he is likely to contribute a disproportionate share of the predicted aces, and his strong return numbers could keep Paul’s service games under pressure; this balance will also influence the expected double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.9 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Paul’s edge comes from a markedly higher Elo and a clean run through the draw here, even if fatigue is higher. The key factor to watch is how effectively Paul can neutralize Tien’s dominant serve and whether Tien’s return numbers translate into breaks; that matchup dynamic will decide the outcome.

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