Stockholm Sweden Hard Atp 250 Finals

Ugo Humbert vs Casper Ruud Prediction

Ugo Humbert

Rank: #26
43%
VS

Casper Ruud

Rank: #12
57%
Expected Total Games: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Casper Ruud

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Ranking Trends

Ugo Humbert

  • Current #26 2025-09-29
  • 3 mo ago #23 2025-07-14
  • 6 mo ago #21 2025-04-14
  • 9 mo ago #14 2025-01-13
  • 12 mo ago #16 2024-10-14

Casper Ruud

  • Current #12 2025-09-29
  • 3 mo ago #13 2025-07-14
  • 6 mo ago #10 2025-04-14
  • 9 mo ago #6 2025-01-13
  • 12 mo ago #8 2024-10-14

Player Metrics

Ugo Humbert

Form Index: 54.5
ELO Rating: 1508.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1665.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 338.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.1
Clay: 15.1
Grass: 17.6
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 85.0

Casper Ruud

Form Index: 61.1
ELO Rating: 3013.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1786.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 338.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.1
Clay: 30.6
Grass: 35.0
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 85.7

Recent Matches

Ugo Humbert
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Casper Ruud
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Ugo Humbert
vs
1
Casper Ruud
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the finals of the ATP 250 tournament in Stockholm, Ugo Humbert is set to face Casper Ruud on hard court. The prediction leans towards Ruud as the winner with a probability of 57.02%, while Humbert has a 42.98% chance. The predicted total number of games played in this match is 24.

Match Analysis

Casper Ruud, currently ranked 12th, boasts a higher form index (61.12) and Elo rating (3013.42) compared to Ugo Humbert, who is ranked 26th with a form index of 54.49 and an Elo rating of 1508.76. Both players exhibit similar cumulative fatigue levels at 338 minutes, but Ruud's surface strength index (18.15) surpasses Humbert's (15.07), indicating better adaptability on hard courts. While Humbert has a slight edge in mean serve index (97.10 vs. 95.52), their mean return indices are quite close (85.03 for Humbert vs. 85.73 for Ruud), suggesting a competitive edge for Ruud in return games. In their last three matches, Ruud has demonstrated consistent form, winning all his encounters, including a commanding victory over Denis Shapovalov in his last match. Humbert, on the other hand, has had a mixed performance, with a recent loss to Holger Rune following a victory against Lorenzo Sonego and Matteo Berrettini. This inconsistency could be a disadvantage as he faces a formidable opponent in Ruud.

Final Prediction

Casper Ruud is favored to win the match due to his higher rank, better form, and recent performances, which indicate a significant competitive edge. A key factor to watch will be the effectiveness of their serves, especially given Humbert's slight advantage, which could prove crucial in tightly contested games.

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