Madrid Spain Clay Masters 1000 Round of 32

Vit Kopriva vs Arthur Rinderknech: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Vit Kopriva

Rank: #66
45%
VS

Arthur Rinderknech

Rank: #26
55%
Expected Total Games: 23.3
Predicted Winner: Arthur Rinderknech

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Player Metrics

Vit Kopriva

Form Index: 68.9
ELO Rating: 1661.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1697.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 130.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 51.9
Clay: 43.0
Grass: 39.3
Serve Rating: 65.3
Return Rating: 77.4

Arthur Rinderknech

Form Index: 52.1
ELO Rating: 1656.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1691.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 73.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 57.4
Clay: 41.3
Grass: 44.8
Serve Rating: 98.8
Return Rating: 88.3

Recent Matches

Vit Kopriva

  • Last Match: vs Andrey Rublev (2-0) clay Madrid 74 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Zhizhen Zhang (2-0) clay Madrid 56 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Flavio Cobolli (0-2) clay Munich 86 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Luciano Darderi (2-1) clay Munich 120 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Justin Engel (2-1) clay Munich 130 min

Arthur Rinderknech

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Vit Kopriva
vs
0
Arthur Rinderknech
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In Madrid (Spain), Round of 32 on clay at a Masters 1000 event, Arthur Rinderknech is narrowly favored to progress. The model gives Rinderknech a 55.15% chance to win versus 44.85% for Vit Kopriva, with an expected total of about 23.3 games in the match.

Match Analysis

This is an intriguing clash on paper. Kopriva sits at No. 66 with a strong recent form index (≈69) and a marginally higher Elo (1661.3) than Rinderknech (1656.5), suggesting he’s been playing confidently. However, Rinderknech’s higher tour ranking (26) and far lower fatigue (73 minutes vs Kopriva’s 130) give him a durability edge deep into long clay exchanges. Both players show almost identical surface strength indices in the low 40s, so neither has a clear clay-specialist advantage. Where the match dynamics will be decided is serving and returning. Rinderknech’s mean serve index is vastly higher (≈98.8) than Kopriva’s (≈65.3) — a difference big enough to shape games — and his mean return index (≈88.3) also exceeds Kopriva’s (≈77.4). Those gaps imply Rinderknech can still win quick points despite the slower clay, while Kopriva’s respectable return numbers and current form (he’s beaten strong opponents recently) mean he won’t be easily overwhelmed. Recent form: Kopriva has won his two Madrid matches (including a straight-sets win over Andrey Rublev) after a loss in Munich; Rinderknech arrives off a straight-sets win here and a mixed clay swing that included one defeat in Munich.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.3 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Vit Kopriva versus Arthur Rinderknech. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Vit Kopriva versus Arthur Rinderknech. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Vit Kopriva - Arthur Rinderknech) -1.4 Most likely spread: -2 (Arthur Rinderknech wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Vit Kopriva versus Arthur Rinderknech. Positive values indicate Vit Kopriva winning more games, negative values indicate Arthur Rinderknech winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Vit Kopriva versus Arthur Rinderknech. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is moderate — the model’s predicted aces total is about 11.09. Clay typically reduces ace counts, but Rinderknech’s elite serve rating should keep the ace tally higher than usual for a clay match. The double faults prediction sits at an expected double faults value of 5.88; slower surfaces and Kopriva’s higher cumulative minutes on court make double faults more likely as rallies and pressure mount.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.1 Most likely: 11 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Vit Kopriva versus Arthur Rinderknech. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Vit Kopriva versus Arthur Rinderknech. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Vit Kopriva versus Arthur Rinderknech. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Vit Kopriva versus Arthur Rinderknech. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Rinderknech’s combination of a dominant serve, strong return numbers and fresher legs is the narrow reason he’s favored. Watch his serve efficiency and Kopriva’s ability to convert early return opportunities — those two factors will decide whether this stays tight or tips in Rinderknech’s favor.

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