Bundesliga 2026-2027: Elversberg vs Augsburg Prediction - 17 Oct 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Elversberg

Home Team
36%
VS

Augsburg

Away Team
36%
Draw: 28%
Over 2.5: 65%
Under 2.5: 35%
Goal: 69%
No Goal: 31%
Expected Corners: 10.8
Expected Shots: 31.6
Expected Spread: -0.3

Why the Model Leans Elversberg

The factors behind the model's pick between the two sides, in win-probability points. The draw is priced separately above.

Home advantage +12.9 Elversberg
Attack +10.0 Augsburg
Chance creation (xG data) +3.4 Augsburg
Defense +3.1 Elversberg

When this match produces a winner, these factors move the model from an even matchup to 51% for Elversberg. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Why the Model Sees Over 2.5

The factors behind the goals prediction, in probability points toward Under or Over. Independent of the winner model.

Augsburg defense +11.7 Over
Elversberg defense +5.2 Over
Form & results +2.8 Under
League scoring environment +2.4 Over
Elversberg attack & chance creation +1.4 Under

These factors move the model from an even matchup to 65% for Over 2.5. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Freiburg 5 4 1 0 14 4 10 13
2 Dortmund 5 4 1 0 11 4 7 13
3 Bayern Munich 5 3 2 0 16 4 12 11
4 Leverkusen 5 3 1 1 14 8 6 10
5 RB Leipzig 5 3 0 2 15 5 10 9
6 Augsburg 5 2 2 1 13 8 5 8
7 Werder Bremen 5 2 2 1 10 10 0 8
8 Mainz 5 2 1 2 13 10 3 7
9 Elversberg 5 2 1 2 8 8 0 7
10 FC Koln 5 2 1 2 8 10 -2 7
11 Stuttgart 5 2 0 3 8 9 -1 6
12 Hamburg 5 2 0 3 5 15 -10 6
13 Schalke 04 5 1 2 2 4 6 -2 5
14 Ein Frankfurt 5 1 2 2 9 16 -7 5
15 Paderborn 5 1 1 3 3 7 -4 4
16 Union Berlin 5 1 1 3 5 17 -12 4
17 Hoffenheim 5 1 0 4 9 13 -4 3
18 M'gladbach 5 0 0 5 7 18 -11 0

Recent Trends

Elversberg L D L W W

  • Last Match: L vs Union Berlin (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Schalke 04 (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs M'gladbach (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Leverkusen (Goals: 3 - 2)

Augsburg D L D W W

  • Last Match: D vs Bayern Munich (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Leverkusen (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Schalke 04 (Goals: 3 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Elversberg

xG (avg) 1.22
xGA (avg) 2.84
Clean Sheets 1

Augsburg

xG (avg) 1.09
xGA (avg) 2.40
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

A home win and an Augsburg win are joint most likely outcomes at 36% each, with a draw at 28%. Elversberg is the listed pick. The goals forecast leans over 2.5 at 65%.

Match Analysis

Home advantage is the clearest counterweight to Augsburg’s stronger attack and chance creation. Elversberg have gone scoreless in their two most recent matches, a 0-0 draw at Schalke followed by a 0-1 loss at Union Berlin. At home, they have averaged 2.0 goals from 1.2 xG, suggesting their scoring has outpaced the chances they create. Augsburg’s latest 2-2 draw with Bayern Munich showed their ability to score, but they faced 30 shots and conceded twice. They had also lost 2-3 away to Werder Bremen before that draw. Their defensive vulnerability on the road gives Elversberg a route to make the home advantage count.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Elversberg
Goals in last 5 matches
Augsburg
Goals in last 5 matches
The lean is over 2.5 goals at 65%. Augsburg’s defensive record is the strongest push toward a higher total, with Elversberg’s defensive numbers also pointing that way, though recent results and the home side’s attack temper the case.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Elversberg
Corners in last 5 matches
Augsburg
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total is 10.8 corners. Recent match totals include 10 for Elversberg against Union Berlin and 14 for Augsburg against Bayern Munich, which fit a projection around that level.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Elversberg
Shots in last 5 matches
Augsburg
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The projection is about 32 shots in total. Augsburg’s recent matches featured 30 shots against Bayern Munich and 30 against Leverkusen, suggesting the visitors can contribute to a busy shot count.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Elversberg wins by X goals. Negative = Augsburg wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Elversberg vs Augsburg with expected spread of -0.3
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Elversberg vs Augsburg
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected margin is about 0.3 goals in Augsburg’s favour. That is a slight away tilt, despite the equal win probabilities and Elversberg being the listed pick.

Final Prediction

Elversberg’s home scoring record could overturn the slight away lean, but their recent scoreless outings make it important that they turn home chances into goals.

More Football Predictions

Today's AI picks across Serie A, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and Ligue 1:

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Draw Predictions Both Teams to Score Goal Spread Corners

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