Bundesliga 2025-2026: Freiburg vs St Pauli Prediction
Freiburg
Home Team
68%
VS
St Pauli
Away Team
15%
Draw: 17%
Over 2.5:
47%
Under 2.5:
53%
Goal:
52%
No Goal:
48%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 4 | 29 | 27 |
| 2 | RB Leipzig | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Dortmund | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 20 |
| 4 | Stuttgart | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Leverkusen | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Hoffenheim | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | FC Koln | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 14 |
| 8 | Ein Frankfurt | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 19 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Werder Bremen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 12 |
| 10 | Union Berlin | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 11 |
| 11 | Freiburg | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | Wolfsburg | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Hamburg | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 | Augsburg | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | St Pauli | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 7 |
| 16 | M'gladbach | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Mainz | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | Heidenheim | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 5 |
Recent Trends
Freiburg
- Last Match: vs Union Berlin (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Leverkusen (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 2 - 2)
- 4th Last Match: vs M'gladbach (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 5th Last Match: vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 1 - 1)
St Pauli
- Last Match: vs M'gladbach (Goals: 0 - 4)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Ein Frankfurt (Goals: 0 - 2)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Hoffenheim (Goals: 0 - 3)
- 4th Last Match: vs Werder Bremen (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Leverkusen (Goals: 1 - 2)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Freiburg
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.58
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.22
# Clean Sheets:
2
St Pauli
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.08
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.94
# Clean Sheets:
0
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Freiburg and St Pauli is predicted to favor the home side, Freiburg, with a 68.0% probability of victory. Currently sitting 11th in the Bundesliga standings, Freiburg is perceived as the stronger team against 15th-placed St Pauli. The game is expected to feature fewer than 2.5 goals, aligning with a 47.0% probability for this outcome. Despite the potential for goals, the predicted result leans towards a lower-scoring affair.
Match Analysis
Freiburg's recent form has been mixed, with their last three encounters resulting in two draws and one loss. Notably, they held Union Berlin to a scoreless stalemate away and shared the spoils with Ein Frankfurt in a 2-2 draw at home. However, they faltered against Leverkusen, losing 2-0. Freiburg's recent defensive record shows promise, with two clean sheets in their last five outings, supported by an average of 1.75 goals conceded. Offensively, they are averaging 1.75 goals per game over the same period, indicating a balanced attack.
In contrast, St Pauli is struggling, having lost their last three matches without scoring a single goal. Their recent defeats include a heavy 4-0 loss at home to M'gladbach and a 3-0 defeat against Hoffenheim. St Pauli's defense has been porous, conceding an average of 1.25 goals per game over their past five matches while failing to keep any clean sheets. Their attack is equally concerning, with a meager average of 0.5 goals scored per game.
Final Prediction
Freiburg's edge in this matchup stems from their more robust recent performances, particularly in defense. The key factor to watch will be Freiburg's ability to capitalize on St Pauli's defensive vulnerabilities. With the home crowd's support and a slightly more potent attack, Freiburg is poised to secure a vital victory in their quest to climb the Bundesliga standings.